Strategic Sample Size Solutions for MedTech Startups: Navigating Software vs. Expert Support

A comprehensive guide for medtech sponsors and clinical teams on optimising sample size calculations for clinical trial success

The Critical Crossroads Every MedTech Sponsor Faces

As a sponsor or member of a clinical team in the MedTech industry, you’re tasked with making critical decisions that impact the success of clinical trials. One of the most pivotal choices you’ll face is determining the appropriate sample size for your study—a decision that balances scientific validity, ethical considerations, regulatory compliance, and resource allocation.

The stakes couldn’t be higher. Industry data reveals a troubling pattern: 72% of early-stage sponsors attempt sample size calculations internally, yet 68% of these face costly protocol amendments due to statistical flaws. These amendments don’t just delay timelines—they cost sponsors between €350,000 and €1.2 million in redesigns and regulatory delays. For cash-strapped medtech startups, such setbacks can be existential.

This comprehensive guide examines your two primary pathways for sample size calculation: utilising specialised software tools like nQuery or PASS, and engaging a trained biostatistician. Through documented industry cases, transparent cost analysis, and evidence-based guidance, we’ll help you understand which method—or combination of methods—best suits your trial’s needs, complexity, and constraints.

The Decision Tree: Visualising Your Options

The choice between software and expert approaches can be visualized as a strategic decision tree with measurably different outcomes:

This stark contrast in outcomes—68% amendment risk versus 92% regulatory compliance success—illustrates why the economics ultimately favor expert involvement for most medtech trials.

Understanding the Software Pathway: nQuery and PASS

The Promise of Accessibility and Speed

Tools like nQuery and PASS have revolutionised access to statistical calculations, offering medtech teams what appears to be a cost-effective, immediate solution. These platforms provide comprehensive scenarios at your fingertips, with nQuery alone offering up to 1,000 different statistical settings. For trials with standard designs, this breadth can be incredibly useful, allowing you to quickly generate sample size estimates and power analyses.

The user-friendly interfaces are designed with accessibility in mind, featuring intuitive workflows that guide you through the calculation process. This can be particularly advantageous if your team includes members with varying levels of statistical expertise. When you need rapid results for preliminary planning or investor presentations, software tools can provide immediate outputs, facilitating faster decision-making.

User feedback confirms these benefits when sponsors have adequate statistical literacy. Industry research shows that “nQuery reduced calculation time from 18 hours to 40 minutes for standard RCTs,” while providing valuable exploratory flexibility for sensitivity testing scenarios. As one pharma consultant highlighted in software reviews, nQuery covers “every design of importance” and provides excellent step-by-step guidance with built-in references. Users particularly appreciate the exploratory capabilities—one reviewer noted nQuery’s “intuitive interface and helpful tips, which make it easy to explore how changing parameters affects sample size and power.”

The Hidden Costs and Documented Risks

However, the apparent simplicity of software solutions masks significant complexities that have proven costly for medtech sponsors. The licensing fees alone can be substantial—nQuery’s pricing ranges from $925 to $7,495 annually, while PASS offers subscription licenses from $1,195 to $2,995 annually, with perpetual licenses costing up to $4,995. User reviews consistently cite cost as a major concern, with one PASS user describing it as “expensive” and noting it’s “almost required if you work in the clinical trials setting,” but the price of licenses and upgrades can be steep for small companies. nQuery’s modular licensing structure also draws criticism, with certain advanced methods only available in higher-tier licenses, which users find frustrating.

PASS software has earned positive feedback for its comprehensive methodology coverage. An enterprise user praised PASS for having “so many different types of power and sample size estimation methodologies” with detailed outputs, including interpretations and references for each procedure. A mid-market user highlighted the efficiency gains: PASS “saved my hours of coding work” as results are ready in seconds, replacing manual calculations or coding in R/SAS with a point-and-click solution.

Research consistently identifies three critical failure points when sponsors operate software without statistical support: misaligned effect size assumptions, inappropriate variance estimates from irrelevant studies, and endpoint-test mismatches. The risk of “garbage in, garbage out” is particularly acute—the accuracy of software-generated estimates heavily relies on the quality and appropriateness of input parameters.

This cascade of potential errors illustrates how seemingly straightforward software inputs can lead to regulatory complications that surface during the critical Day-120 review period.

Real-world case studies illustrate these risks. A cardiac monitor startup used PASS with standard cardiology trial parameters, only to have the EMA reject their variance justification because their patient profile differed significantly from the reference studies. The result was a €420,000 amendment and substantial delays. Similarly, an AI diagnostics sponsor applied nQuery’s t-test calculations to skewed data, leading to a Data Safety Monitoring Board halt for statistical inadequacy and an eight-month delay.

When Software Falls Short

While software tools offer extensive scenarios, they struggle with the customisation challenges that characterise many medtech innovations. Your trial may have unique aspects or complexities that aren’t fully captured by predefined options. The tools are designed for standard frameworks, but medtech often involves novel devices, innovative endpoints, or specialised patient populations that don’t fit neatly into existing templates.

User reviews reveal additional practical limitations. Some users note usability issues—a PASS reviewer from a small business wished for “better organisation of options in the interface to make it more understandable.” Technical constraints also exist: nQuery runs only on Windows, forcing Mac users to use emulators. Documentation quality varies, with one experienced statistician commenting that some nQuery help pages were “cryptic,” though this may have improved in recent versions.

More critically, no software covers every scenario. Extremely complex designs might not be supported out-of-the-box—bioequivalence forum discussions have noted that neither PASS nor nQuery could handle highly specialized reference-scaled bioequivalence designs without custom simulation.

The false economy becomes apparent when sponsors attempt to use software for complex trials. As one industry expert cautioned, “blindly relying on generic calculators in complex device studies” can lead to misestimates due to oversimplifications. Research shows that 58% of sponsors postpone necessary validation due to budget constraints, creating what regulatory experts term “statistical debt”—unchecked outputs that create false confidence until regulatory review exposes critical errors.

The Expert Pathway: How Biostatisticians Mitigate Risk

Tailored Consultation and Strategic Planning

A biostatistician begins with what software cannot: a deep dive into your trial’s objectives, design, and specific challenges. This collaborative consultation process ensures that every aspect of your study is considered, from primary and secondary endpoints to potential confounders, patient population characteristics, and regulatory requirements. This thorough foundation-building is crucial for accurate sample size calculation and overall trial success.

The process extends far beyond number-crunching. A skilled biostatistician evaluates your assumptions against existing evidence, challenges potentially unrealistic effect sizes, and helps identify potential pitfalls before they become costly problems. This front-end investment in rigorous planning has proven its value repeatedly in preventing trial failures and regulatory delays.

Customised Statistical Modeling and Validation

Leveraging tools like SAS, R, or Stata, biostatisticians develop models tailored to your trial’s unique requirements. This bespoke approach allows for sophisticated simulations and adjustments that software tools may not offer, ensuring that your sample size estimates are both accurate and aligned with your trial’s goals. The modeling process can incorporate complex scenarios, multiple endpoints, adaptive designs, and other innovations that standard software cannot handle.

Industry research documents specific benefits that sponsors frequently cite when outsourcing:

Specialised Expertise: Companies gain access to experienced biostatisticians who are well-versed in the latest statistical methods and regulatory expectations. An external expert can “anticipate and address potential issues” in trial design and analysis, lending confidence that the study is statistically sound.

Cost Effectiveness: For small sponsors, maintaining full-time biostatistics staff isn’t feasible. Outsourcing on a project basis can be more cost-effective than hiring and training in-house personnel, with sponsors saving on overhead and only paying for what they need.

Objectivity and Compliance: An outsourced biostatistician provides independent, unbiased analysis crucial for credibility and regulatory requirements. This objectivity helps “maintain objectivity and impartiality in data analysis,” which supports the scientific credibility of trials.

Clinical studies demonstrate the measurable value of this expert involvement. A meta-analysis published in Clinical Trials found that “sponsors using statisticians reduced sample size flaws by 74%,” while EMA reporting showed that studies with statistician-drafted Statistical Analysis Plans had 92% fewer regulatory deficiencies. Perhaps most compellingly, research in PharmaStat Journal documented that “expert-guided designs reduced enrollment by 23% without compromising power”—a finding that translates to substantial cost savings for sponsors.

Iterative Refinement and Ongoing Support

Unlike software tools that provide static calculations, biostatisticians offer iterative refinement and validation based on ongoing feedback and emerging data. This dynamic process is crucial for mitigating risks and ensuring that your trial design remains robust as circumstances evolve. The relationship doesn’t end with the initial calculation—expert biostatisticians provide ongoing support throughout the trial lifecycle, from protocol development through data analysis.

However, industry research also documents important challenges with outsourcing that sponsors must consider:

Oversight Requirements: Regulatory guidance (ICH E6) reminds sponsors that they retain ultimate responsibility for trial data quality. Effective oversight of the CRO or consultant is needed, and several sponsors report devoting significant effort to communication, oversight meetings, and quality checks to ensure outsourced work meets expectations.

Potential Inefficiencies: Industry surveys indicate that some sponsors experienced slower timelines and higher costs with outsourced programmes—one report noted a 1:3 ratio of sponsors seeing better versus worse performance when outsourcing, with complaints of “increasing costs, and contributing to delays in protocol conduct” for some projects.

Communication and Context: An external statistician might not have the same depth of understanding of the product or trial nuances as an internal team member. Ensuring the outsourced analyst fully grasps the clinical context and reasonable assumptions can be challenging, requiring clear communication of device specifics and study objectives.

This iterative approach has proven particularly valuable for medtech trials, where device evolution, manufacturing changes, or regulatory feedback may require design modifications. Having expert statistical support throughout the process ensures that any necessary changes maintain the trial’s statistical integrity and regulatory compliance.

The Startup Reality: Why the Economics Favor Expertise

Documented Case Studies and Cost Analysis

The choice between software and expert support often comes down to economics, but the true cost comparison reveals surprising insights. Industry research notes that many device sponsors lacking in-house statistical expertise are “forced to look for advice outside of their organisation (which is also recommended)” when it comes to sample size calculation. The false economy of software-first approaches becomes clear when considering the full cost picture. The apparent savings of a $925 software licence evaporate when validation costs ($800) are added, totalling $1,725—more than the $1,500 cost of full expert service for most studies. More critically, 58% of sponsors postpone validation due to budget constraints, amplifying the risk of costly errors.

Cost-Benefit Breakdown for Pivotal Trials

The true economics become clear when examining the complete cost structure:

This analysis reveals that while expert service represents 25% of total statistical costs, software plus validation accounts for 38%, and amendment risk represents a staggering 37% of the total investment.

Source: MedTech Financial Benchmarks 2024

The Amendment Risk Factor

Protocol amendments represent the greatest hidden cost in the software vs. expert decision. Industry data shows that statistical flaws requiring amendments cost sponsors between €350,000 and €1.2 million in delays and redesigns. When this amendment risk is factored into the decision matrix, the economics strongly favor expert involvement from the outset.

Evidence-Based Decision Framework

For Occasional Studies (1-2 per year)

When your medtech startup is conducting infrequent studies, the economics clearly favor expert consultation over software ownership. For early feasibility studies, expert validation typically costs 83% less than software ownership when all factors are considered. For pivotal trials, full statistical service avoids the €500,000+ amendment risk that plagues software-only approaches.

The regulatory landscape adds another consideration. For EU Post-market clinical follow-up (PAS) studies, independent statistical expertise is increasingly becoming a regulatory requirement, making expert consultation non-negotiable rather than optional.

For Multiple Studies (3+ per year)

Companies conducting frequent studies face a different calculation. Software consideration becomes viable only when annual licensing costs represent less than 60% of equivalent expert fees. However, even frequent software users require non-negotiable quarterly statistical audits at approximately $1,500 per session to maintain quality and regulatory compliance.

Implementation Roadmap for Different Company Stages

Bootstrapped Startups: Resource-constrained startups should prioritize pivotal trial calculations, leverage fixed-fee validation services ($1,500 per study), and avoid software licenses until conducting at least three studies annually. The focus should be on avoiding catastrophic amendment costs rather than optimizing routine operational expenses.

Growth-Stage Companies: Companies with expanding clinical programmes should conduct comprehensive software ROI analyses that include error risk, implement biostatistician retainer agreements ($2,000-$3,000 monthly), and standardise assumption documentation protocols across all studies. This stage represents the transition point where software ownership may become economically viable, but only with expert oversight.

The Hybrid Approach: Optimising Both Speed and Accuracy

Leveraging the Best of Both Worlds

Many successful medtech companies have discovered that a hybrid approach—using software for initial estimates combined with biostatistician refinement and validation—offers optimal value. This strategy leverages the speed and convenience of software tools while benefiting from the tailored expertise and risk mitigation provided by statistical experts.

Industry research supports this combined approach. As one PASS user advised, get the software because “it has saved me intensive work”—emphasising how tools can eliminate tedious manual calculations. Users love the agility; one noted that a free trial of nQuery can “easily convince a skeptic of its usefulness.” Yet the final validation often comes from an experienced biostatistician to ensure nothing was overlooked.

The consensus emerging from user experiences is that software and expertise are complementary rather than adversarial. A powerful sample size tool in knowledgeable hands can rapidly yield answers that might take days through coding or meetings. However, as one medtech expert noted, the goal should be to “combine statistical and clinical knowledge when justifying sample size”—often meaning using software to crunch numbers and an expert to interpret and confirm them.

The hybrid model works particularly well for companies with mixed trial portfolios. Standard feasibility studies might rely primarily on software with expert validation, whilst complex pivotal trials receive full expert design and analysis support. This tiered approach optimises resource allocation whilst maintaining quality standards across all studies.

Regulatory Considerations and Compliance

Evolving Regulatory Expectations

Regulatory agencies increasingly expect sophisticated statistical approaches that reflect the complexity of modern medtech innovations. The European Medicines Agency’s recent audit reports highlight statistical deficiencies as a primary cause of regulatory delays, whilst the FDA’s guidance documents emphasise the importance of appropriate statistical methodology in device trials.

AgencySample Size RequirementExpert Impact
EMAJustified effect size/variance92% deficiency reduction
FDAModel-endpoint alignment74% error prevention
MHRAPAS study independenceMandatory for compliance

The regulatory landscape strongly favors expert involvement. Studies with biostatistician-drafted protocols and analysis plans consistently demonstrate higher regulatory success rates, fewer deficiency letters, and faster approval timelines. For medtech companies targeting global markets, this regulatory efficiency can be worth far more than the upfront statistical investment.

The growing emphasis on post-market surveillance and real-world evidence adds another dimension to the software vs. expert decision. These evolving study types often require innovative statistical approaches that extend beyond traditional software capabilities. Expert biostatisticians bring experience with adaptive designs, Bayesian methods, and other advanced techniques that are becoming increasingly important in medtech development.

Making Your Strategic Decision

Key Factors to Evaluate

Your decision should be based on a comprehensive evaluation of trial complexity, regulatory requirements, internal capabilities, and risk tolerance.

When Software May Be Appropriate:

  • You have access to a skilled biostatistician or statistically savvy team member who can ensure inputs and outputs are appropriate
  • Standard trial designs with well-established endpoints
  • Need for rapid scenario testing and exploratory analyses
  • Companies conducting multiple studies annually (3+) where software licensing becomes cost-effective

When Expert Consultation Is Essential:

  • Lack of in-house statistical expertise
  • Complex pivotal trials, innovative device studies, or trials with novel endpoints
  • Specialized designs not well-covered by standard software templates
  • Regulatory requirements demanding independent statistical review (e.g., EU PAS studies)

Simple feasibility studies with standard endpoints may be appropriate for software-based approaches with expert validation. Complex pivotal trials, innovative device studies, or trials with novel endpoints typically require full expert involvement from the design phase.

Budget considerations should include not just upfront costs but also amendment risk, regulatory delay costs, and the opportunity cost of trial failure. The apparent economy of software solutions often proves illusory when these hidden costs are properly accounted for.

For most medtech startups, this decision framework provides clear guidance:

Building Long-Term Statistical Capabilities

For growing medtech companies, the decision also involves building long-term statistical capabilities. Some companies benefit from developing internal statistical expertise supported by software tools, whilst others find that outsourced expert relationships provide more flexible, cost-effective solutions. The choice depends on your company’s clinical development strategy, trial frequency, and internal expertise development goals.

Conclusion: Optimising for Success

The choice between software tools and expert biostatistical support represents more than a simple cost-benefit calculation. It’s a strategic decision that impacts trial success, regulatory compliance, resource efficiency, and ultimately, your company’s ability to bring innovative medtech solutions to market.

The evidence strongly suggests that whilst software tools have their place in the medtech statistical toolkit, they work best when combined with expert oversight and validation. For most medtech startups, the economics favour expert consultation, particularly when amendment risks and regulatory requirements are properly factored into the decision.

The goal is not to find the cheapest solution, but to optimise for trial success whilst managing resources effectively. In an industry where trial failure can mean the difference between breakthrough innovation and commercial failure, investing in appropriate statistical expertise represents one of the most important decisions you’ll make in your clinical development journey.

Whether you choose software tools, expert consultation, or a hybrid approach, ensure that your decision is based on your specific trial requirements, regulatory landscape, and risk tolerance. The upfront investment in appropriate statistical support—whatever form it takes—pays dividends in trial success, regulatory efficiency, and ultimately, patient access to innovative medtech solutions

If you need to estimate sample sizes for medical device or diagnostics studies, our free comprehensive web apps offer a simple solution using advanced methods. No set up, no sign up, no installation, no payment – just enter your parameters and receive a sample size estimation right away. Our apps are dedicated specifically to medical device and diagnostics studies. While an estimate is based on detailed parameters and validated methodology, it is only going to be as accurate as the values input by the user. For guidance on finding the correct parameter values to input please download the free help documentation or contact us for a detailed sample size audit and advice on a consultancy basis.

References

Primary Research Sources:

  1. User reviews of nQuery software (G2, 2019–2021) – https://www.g2.com/products/nquery-sample-size-software/reviews
  2. User reviews of PASS software (G2, 2022–2024) – https://www.g2.com/products/ncss-pass/reviews
  3. Bergsteinsson, J. “How to Calculate Sample Size for Medical Device Studies.” Greenlight Guru (2022) – https://www.greenlight.guru/blog/calculate-sample-size-medical-device-studies
  4. “Outsourcing Biostatistics? 4 Reasons Your Clinical Trial Will Thank You.” Firma Clinical Research (2024) – https://www.firmaclinicalresearch.com/outsourced-biostatistics-services-enhance-clinical-trial/
  5. Hennig et al. “Current practice and perspectives in CRO oversight for Biostatistics & Data Management services.” Publisso (2020) – https://series.publisso.de/en/journals/mibe/volume14/mibe000179
  6. BEBAC forum discussion on software limitations (2014) – https://forum.bebac.at/mix_entry.php?id=12858

Industry Reports: 7. EMA Audit Report (2023) 8. Clinical Trials Journal (2024) 9. MedTech Financial Benchmarks (2024) 10. PharmaStat Journal (2024) 11. StatMed (2023) 12. Journal of Clinical Trials (2023) 13. MedTech Startup Survey (2024)

This analysis is based on documented user experiences, published research, and industry reports. No software commissions or affiliations influence these recommendations.

Treatment-Adaptive vs Response-Adaptive Randomisation: A Practical Guide for Medtech Trials

Medical device trials increasingly incorporate adaptive randomisation to improve efficiency and patient outcomes. Two main approaches have emerged: treatment-adaptive randomisation (TAR), which modifies allocation probabilities at pre-planned interim analyses, and response-adaptive randomisation (RAR), which updates allocations continuously based on patient outcomes.

The choice between these methods depends on trial characteristics including endpoint timing, data infrastructure, regulatory requirements, and scientific objectives. This guide examines the mathematical foundations and operational considerations for each approach to help biostatisticians and sponsors select the most appropriate method for their specific trial context.

Fundamental Differences Between TAR and RAR

The core distinction lies in timing and granularity of adaptation. Treatment-adaptive randomisation makes allocation adjustments at predetermined interim analyses, typically based on aggregate efficacy or safety data. Response-adaptive randomisation updates allocation probabilities after each patient outcome, using statistical learning algorithms to favour better-performing treatments continuously.

Fixed randomisation assigns patients to treatment arms with constant probabilities throughout the trial. Both TAR and RAR modify these probabilities, but TAR does so at discrete timepoints whilst RAR adapts continuously. This fundamental difference has implications for statistical methodology, operational complexity, and regulatory considerations.

Treatment-Adaptive Randomisation: Mathematical Framework and Implementation

Treatment-adaptive randomisation looks at the big picture through interim analyses, then adjusts allocation probabilities based on overall treatment performance. The maths centres on formal interim analyses where you evaluate treatment effects and modify future allocation probabilities according to pre-specified rules. Unlike response-adaptive methods that update after every patient, TAR makes calculated moves at predetermined checkpoints.

Let π_i(k) denote the allocation probability for treatment i at stage k, where k = 1, 2, …, K represents the interim analysis stages. The adaptation rule can be expressed as:

π_i(k+1) = f(T_i(k), π_i(k), α, β)

where T_i(k) is the test statistic for treatment i at stage k, and α, β are pre-specified parameters controlling the adaptation strength.

A common approach uses the square-root rule for allocation probability updates:

π_i(k+1) = (√p̂_i(k))^α / Σ_j(√p̂_j(k))^α

where p̂_i(k) is the estimated success probability for treatment i at interim analysis k, and α controls how aggressively the allocation shifts toward better-performing treatments.

Consider a cardiac stent trial testing three new drug-eluting stents against standard care. After enrolling 200 patients and conducting your first interim analysis, Stent A shows a 15% reduction in target vessel revascularisation compared to standard care, while Stents B and C perform similarly to the control. Using α = 2 in the square-root rule with observed success rates p̂_A = 0.85, p̂_B = 0.70, p̂_C = 0.72, p̂_D = 0.70:

  • π_A = (√0.85)² / [(√0.85)² + (√0.70)² + (√0.72)² + (√0.70)²] = 0.30
  • π_B = π_D = 0.70 / 2.87 = 0.24 each
  • π_C = 0.72 / 2.87 = 0.25

TAR implementations must account for multiple testing through α-spending functions. The Lan-DeMets approach allocates Type I error across K analyses using α(t_k) = α × f(t_k), where t_k = I_k/I_max is the information fraction. Common spending functions include O’Brien-Fleming: f(t) = 2(1 – Φ(z_{α/2}/√t)) and Pocock: f(t) = α × ln(1 + (e-1)t).

This approach requires sophisticated planning upfront. You need to specify exactly when interim analyses occur, what statistical tests you’ll use, and how the results translate into new allocation probabilities. The MHRA appreciates this level of pre-specification because it prevents you from making it up as you go along, though of course the FDA and EMA have similar expectations.

Response-Adaptive Randomisation: Bayesian and Frequentist Approaches

Response-adaptive randomisation operates at a much more granular level, updating beliefs about treatment effectiveness after each patient outcome. The mathematical foundation typically involves Bayesian updating, where you maintain probability distributions representing your current beliefs about each treatment’s efficacy.

Thompson sampling maintains posterior distributions for each treatment’s efficacy parameter. For binary outcomes, if treatment i has observed s_i successes in n_i trials, the posterior under a Beta(α,β) prior becomes:

θ_i | data ~ Beta(α + s_i, β + n_i – s_i)

At each allocation, sample θ̃_i from each posterior and assign the next patient to treatment argmax_i θ̃_i. The allocation probability for treatment i converges to π_i = P(θ_i = max_j θ_j | data).

The Play-the-Winner rule provides the simplest example. If treatments A and B have current success rates S_A and S_B, the probability of assigning the next patient to treatment A becomes P(A) = S_A / (S_A + S_B). When treatment A succeeds in 8 out of 10 patients while treatment B succeeds in 6 out of 10, the next patient has an 8/(8+6) = 57% chance of receiving treatment A.

Additional RAR rules include Randomised Play-the-Winner (RPW) using urn models, and CARA (Covariate-Adjusted Response-Adaptive) which models success probability as logit(P(Y=1|X,Z)) = X^T β + Z^T γ where Z indicates treatment assignment.

For continuous outcomes following N(μ_i, σ²), Thompson sampling updates μ_i | data ~ N(μ̂_i, σ²/n_i) where μ̂_i is the sample mean for treatment i.

Worked Example: AI Diagnostic System Trial

Let me walk you through how this actually works with a concrete example from AI diagnostics. Imagine you’re testing three approaches for detecting diabetic retinopathy: AI-only, traditional ophthalmologist review, and combined AI plus ophthalmologist verification.

You start with uninformative priors Beta(1,1) for each approach. After 50 patients, your data shows AI-only correctly diagnosed 42 cases with 8 errors, traditional review got 38 right with 12 wrong, and the combined approach achieved 47 correct with only 3 errors. Your Beta distributions become Beta(43,9), Beta(39,13), and Beta(48,4) respectively.

For the next patient allocation, you sample from each distribution thousands of times and count how often each approach produces the highest sample. The combined approach, with its impressive Beta(48,4) distribution, might win 80% of these samples, earning it an 80% chance of treating the next patient.

This approach naturally handles the delayed response problem that Di and Ivanova addressed in their 2020 Biometrics paper. When diagnostic results take a fortnight to confirm, you can’t immediately update your beliefs about patients enrolled yesterday. Their methodology maintains separate “pending pools” for each treatment, using π_i(t) = [α_i + s_i(t-d)] / [α_i + β_i + n_i(t-d)] where s_i(t-d) and n_i(t-d) represent successes and total allocations from patients enrolled by time t-d whose outcomes are now available.

Device-Specific Statistical Considerations

Medical devices introduce mathematical challenges that pharmaceuticals rarely face. Learning curves create a particularly thorny problem because early poor outcomes might reflect operator inexperience rather than device inferiority.

Berry and colleagues suggest modelling this explicitly. If θ_ij represents the success probability for surgeon i on case j, you might use θ_ij = α_i + β_i × log(j) + γ × treatment_effect, where α_i captures surgeon i’s baseline ability, β_i represents their learning rate, and γ is the true device effect you’re trying to estimate.

The logarithmic term captures the typical learning curve shape where improvement is rapid initially then plateaus. This mathematical framework lets you separate true device effects from operator learning, preventing promising devices from being unfairly penalised during the skill acquisition phase.

Software updates during trials present another mathematical puzzle. Traditional trial designs treat this as a catastrophe requiring protocol amendments and possibly starting over. But hierarchical Bayesian methods, as described by Thall and colleagues, can actually incorporate device evolution elegantly.

Instead of treating device versions as completely separate entities, you model them as related. If version 1.0 has parameter vector θ₁ and version 1.1 has θ₂, you can specify θ₂ ~ Normal(θ₁ + δ, Σ), where δ represents expected improvement and Σ captures uncertainty about how modifications affect performance. This approach “borrows strength” from pre-update data while learning about post-update performance.

Statistical Challenges and Solutions

The most sophisticated mathematical framework means nothing if your data quality is poor. Adaptive randomisation amplifies rubbish-in-rubbish-out problems because incorrect early decisions cascade through the entire trial.

The solution involves weighting observations by their reliability. Following Berry’s 2011 framework, you can apply data maturity weights w_i = min(1, days_since_observation_i / required_follow_up_days), using w_i × outcome_i in adaptation calculations instead of raw outcomes.

Multiple comparisons present another mathematical challenge. More interim analyses mean more opportunities for false positives, but traditional Bonferroni corrections are far too conservative for adaptive trials. The Lan-DeMets α-spending approach provides a more nuanced solution, allocating your total Type I error budget across interim analyses using α_spent(t) = α × [2(1-Φ(z_α/2/√t)) – 1], where t represents the information fraction.

In a 400-patient trial with analyses every 100 patients, this might allocate 0.0013 of your 0.05 error budget to the first analysis, 0.0087 to the second, 0.0229 to the third, and the remaining 0.0271 to the final analysis.

Simulation Requirements and Operating Characteristics

Before implementing any adaptive design, you absolutely must run extensive simulations. I’m talking about 10,000 or more simulated trials under different scenarios, not the handful that some teams reckon suffices.

Your simulation needs to test the null hypothesis where all treatments are equivalent, realistic alternative hypotheses with plausible effect sizes, and mixed scenarios where some treatments work while others don’t. For each simulated trial, you generate patient outcomes from appropriate probability distributions, apply your adaptation rules at pre-specified interim analyses, then record final sample sizes, allocation ratios, and conclusions.

The MHRA, FDA, and EMA want to see that your Type I error remains below 0.05 under the null hypothesis, that you achieve at least 80% power to detect clinically meaningful differences, and that you realise meaningful efficiency gains when clear winners exist. A well-designed adaptive trial should reduce expected sample size by at least 20% when one treatment clearly dominates.

Regulatory Considerations

Regulators have actually become quite supportive of adaptive designs, but they demand mathematical rigour. Your pre-submission meeting materials need to include complete statistical analysis plans with adaptation algorithms, simulation results demonstrating operating characteristics, clear rationale for your methodological choices, and detailed plans for interim data monitoring committee involvement.

The MHRA’s recent guidance specifically requests adaptation algorithms in pseudo-code format so reviewers can independently verify statistical properties. The FDA and EMA have similar expectations. This isn’t bureaucratic nitpicking – it’s ensuring that your adaptive features are truly prospective and algorithmic rather than subjective.

Implementation Requirements

Implementing adaptive randomisation requires careful consideration of operational constraints. Your data systems need real-time Bayesian updating capabilities, Monte Carlo sampling for Thompson sampling (typically requiring 1000+ samples per allocation), α-spending function calculations for interim analyses, and automated allocation probability updates.

The typical system architecture flows from data entry through real-time databases to statistical engines that feed randomisation systems. Successful adaptive trials typically require 25-50% more statistical analysis plan complexity compared to fixed designs, 40-60% additional programming effort, and 30% increased data management complexity due to real-time requirements.

Decision Framework for Method Selection

Choose Treatment-Adaptive Randomisation when:

  • You have well-defined interim analysis timepoints (e.g., safety run-ins, planned efficacy looks)
  • Primary endpoints require substantial follow-up time
  • Multiple treatment arms with hierarchical stopping rules
  • Regulatory preference for pre-specified adaptation rules
  • Limited real-time data processing capabilities

Choose Response-Adaptive Randomisation when:

  • Rapid endpoint assessment is possible (minutes to days)
  • Strong ethical imperative to minimise exposure to inferior treatments
  • Homogeneous patient population with consistent response patterns
  • Robust real-time data systems available
  • Primary focus on efficiency rather than definitive superiority testing

Consider hybrid approaches when:

  • Different endpoints have different assessment timelines
  • Both early safety signals and longer-term efficacy matter
  • Regulatory discussions suggest openness to novel designs

The key is matching your adaptive mechanism to your trial’s operational realities and scientific objectives. RAR’s patient-level adaptation offers maximum efficiency but demands flawless data systems. TAR’s interim analysis approach provides more control but may miss opportunities for real-time optimisation.

Both approaches require extensive simulation studies to demonstrate operating characteristics under realistic scenarios. The choice between them should be driven by which method best serves your specific combination of scientific questions, operational constraints, and regulatory pathway.

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3. **Springer. (2021). Advances in PTSD Treatment Delivery: Review of Findings and Clinical Implications.** [Link to Journal](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11920-021-01265-w)

4. **Di, J., & Ivanova, A. (2020). Response-Adaptive Randomization for Clinical Trials with Delayed Responses. Biometrics, 76(3), 895-903.** [Link to Journal](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/biom.13211)

5. **Wason, J. M. S., & Trippa, L. (2020). Multi-Arm Multistage Trials Using Response-Adaptive Randomization. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), 69(3), 429-446.** [Link to Journal](https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/rssc.12399)

CRF Design for Clinical Studies: The Distinct Roles of Data Managers vs Biostatisticians

In medtech clinical trials, the Case Report Form (CRF) is more than a tool for collecting data—it’s the backbone of the study. From capturing critical safety outcomes to evaluating device performance, a well-designed CRF ensures that the study’s goals are met efficiently and reliably.

Achieving this balance requires input from two key roles: the data manager and the biostatistician. While their contributions may overlap in some areas, these roles serve distinct and complementary purposes. Understanding how these professionals work together can help medtech sponsors avoid common pitfalls in CRF design and maximise the success of their trials.

The Data Manager’s Role in CRF Design

Data managers are experts in the operational and technical aspects of CRF design. Their role is to ensure that data collection is standardised, consistent, and compliant with relevant guidelines.

Key responsibilities of a data manager include:

  • Formatting CRFs: Ensuring fields are user-friendly and compatible with electronic data capture (EDC) systems.
  • Regulatory Compliance: Aligning CRFs with industry standards such as CDASH (Clinical Data Acquisition Standards Harmonization).
  • Site Usability: Designing forms that facilitate accurate and consistent data entry across multiple trial sites.

For instance, a data manager might ensure that dropdown menus in the CRF prevent free-text responses, reducing the risk of inconsistencies. Their focus is on the practical and technical aspects of data collection.

The Biostatistician’s Role in CRF Design

Biostatisticians, on the other hand, approach CRF design from an analytical perspective. Their focus is on ensuring that the data collected aligns with the study’s endpoints and supports meaningful statistical analysis.

Key responsibilities of a biostatistician include:

  • Aligning Data with Study Objectives: Defining the variables that need to be captured to evaluate the endpoints outlined in the Statistical Analysis Plan (SAP).
  • Variable Definition: Ensuring that collected data supports statistical methods, such as properly coding categorical variables (e.g., mild/moderate/severe).
  • Derived Metrics: Identifying composite or derived variables that must be pre-defined in the CRF to support downstream analysis.

For example, in a post-market study evaluating a vascular device, the biostatistician would ensure that the CRF captures restenosis rates in a format that allows calculation of primary patency—a key endpoint. Their input ensures that no critical data points are overlooked.

Why Both Roles Are Essential to MedTech Trials

Although data managers and biostatisticians work towards the same goal—collecting high-quality data—their approaches and expertise are fundamentally different. Collaboration between these roles is essential for creating CRFs that are both operationally feasible and analytically robust.

1. Preventing Data Gaps

Without biostatistician oversight, CRFs may fail to capture key variables required for endpoint evaluation. For example:

  • In a stent study, a missing field for recording restenosis or target vessel occlusion could render the primary endpoint unanalysable.
  • Failure to specify timepoints for data collection (e.g., 12-month vs. 60-month follow-up) may result in incomplete datasets for secondary analyses.

2. Ensuring Data Compatibility

While data managers ensure that CRFs meet technical and regulatory standards, biostatisticians ensure the data is analyzable. Misalignment in variable formats can lead to delays or errors during analysis. For instance:

  • Categorical variables (e.g., adverse event severity) coded as free text at some sites and numeric values at others can complicate statistical programming.

3. Regulatory-Ready Analysis

In medtech trials, regulatory submissions rely heavily on robust statistical reporting. Biostatisticians ensure that CRFs are designed to collect all data necessary for generating high-quality, compliant analyses. For example:

  • Derived metrics like cumulative incidence rates must be pre-defined in the CRF to avoid regulatory scrutiny over post-hoc adjustments.

Misconceptions About CRF Design in MedTech

A common misconception in medtech trials is that data managers can fully handle CRF design. While data managers are essential for operationalising CRFs, their expertise does not extend to defining the analytical framework needed to support endpoints and hypotheses.

The Risks of Excluding Biostatistician Input

When biostatisticians are excluded from CRF design:

  • Key Variables May Be Missing: Critical fields for evaluating endpoints may be omitted.
  • Data May Be Misaligned: Improperly coded variables can lead to delays during analysis or errors in reporting.
  • Regulatory Challenges May Arise: Incomplete or improperly formatted data can result in regulatory delays or rejection.

By including biostatisticians early in the CRF design process, sponsors can avoid these risks and ensure their study remains on track.

Real-World Example: The Power of Collaboration

Consider a post-market surveillance study for a diagnostic device. The sponsor relies on CRFs to collect data on device performance across real-world clinical settings. Initially, the data manager designed the CRFs to focus on ease of use at the sites. However, the biostatistician identified a critical oversight: the CRFs did not include fields to track device calibration data, a key variable for assessing long-term performance trends. By collaborating, the data manager and biostatistician ensured the CRFs met both operational and analytical requirements, setting the stage for a successful regulatory submission.

Practical Steps for MedTech Sponsors

To ensure robust CRF design in your medtech trial, consider these steps:

  1. Involve Biostatisticians Early: Engage your biostatistician during the CRF design phase to define variables and ensure alignment with study endpoints.
  2. Foster Collaboration: Encourage close communication between data managers and biostatisticians to balance operational efficiency with analytical rigor.
  3. Prioritise Regulatory Readiness: Design CRFs with regulatory requirements in mind to avoid costly delays during submission.

Final Thoughts

In medtech clinical trials, the success of your study depends on more than just collecting data—it depends on collecting the right data in the right way. Data managers and biostatisticians each bring unique expertise to CRF design, and their collaboration ensures that your trial is set up for operational efficiency, analytical validity, and regulatory success.

By recognising the complementary roles of these professionals, medtech sponsors can avoid common pitfalls and ensure their studies deliver meaningful, actionable results. If you’re planning a clinical trial and want to learn more about how to optimise CRF design, our team at Anatomise Biostats is here to help.

Expert Opinion: Why Biostatistics Qualifications Matter in Med-Tech Industry Clinical Trials.

Consider the consequences if a medical doctor, without a formal medical education or licensing, were to diagnose and treat patients. Such a doctor might misunderstand symptoms, choose the wrong treatments, or even harm patients due to lack of understanding and experience. Similarly, an unqualified biostatistician might incorrectly analyse data, misinterpret statistical significance, or fail to recognise biases and patterns essential for accurate conclusions. These errors, when compounded across studies and publications, create a domino effect, misleading the medical community and affecting clinical guidelines that doctors worldwide follow.

When biostatistics work is flawed due to lack of proper training, the evidence that supports clinical decision-making is compromised. The gravity of these potential errors is amplified because biostatistics underpins clinical trial outcomes, which are often used to secure regulatory approval and define the standards for how to treat diseases. If flawed analysis leads to approving ineffective or harmful treatments, patients could suffer adverse effects from what they believe are safe therapies. In this sense, an unqualified biostatistician is even more dangerous than an unlicensed doctor, as their errors can influence the treatment decisions of countless doctors, each one putting their patients at risk based on incorrect or incomplete data.

Without proper qualifications, a biostatistician’s work can lead to harmful outcomes. This is because the analysis they perform underpins the scientific evidence that doctors rely on to make clinical decisions and guide patient care.


Why a Coursework Masters of Biostatistics an indispensable foundation

High-quality biostatistics programs offer advanced, in-depth training that goes far beyond basic statistical application. One of the core skills instilled is the ability to identify gaps in knowledge and continually adapt to the specific demands of each unique clinical trial. A competent biostatistician isn’t just someone who knows how to apply a set of methods; they are a problem-solver equipped to navigate complex, evolving situations, often needing to research, adapt, or even develop new techniques as each clinical context requires.

Unlike a research-based master’s thesis, which typically hones expertise in a narrow area, a coursework master’s in biostatistics emphasises a broad, structured understanding of the field, preparing individuals to apply statistical techniques accurately in a clinical context. Rigorous training in biostatistics is essential because the stakes are high, and the work of a biostatistician directly influences the treatment approaches trusted by healthcare providers around the world.

A hallmark of a quality biostatistics program is it’s focus on cultivating a mindset of critical evaluation and adaptability. Rather than simply learning a fixed set of methods, students are taught to understand the foundational principles of statistics and how to apply them thoughtfully across different clinical scenarios. This training includes learning how to question assumptions, test the validity of models, and assess the appropriateness of methods in light of each study’s design and data characteristics. It also involves learning how to identify situations where the standard, previously used methods may not suffice—an ability that can only come from a deep understanding of the mathematical principles underpinning statistical techniques.

The mathematical underpinnings of statistical tests can be subtle and intricate. Without specialised training, there’s a high risk that these mathematical nuances will be overlooked or mishandled. For example, failure to correctly adjust for confounding variables can make it appear as though a treatment effect exists when it doesn’t, leading to erroneous conclusions that could harm patients if implemented in clinical practice.

A well-prepared biostatistician is not only familiar with a wide range of statistical tools but also understands when each tool is appropriate, and more importantly, when it may be insufficient. Clinical trials often present unique challenges, such as complex interactions between variables, confounding factors, and datasets that may not conform neatly to traditional statistical models. In these cases, biostatisticians trained to think critically and independently can recognise that the standard approaches may fall short and are capable of researching novel methods, exploring the latest advancements, and adapting techniques to better fit the data at hand. This ability to assess, research, and innovate rather than rigidly apply textbook methods is what makes a biostatistician invaluable to clinical research.

Advanced biostatistics programs emphasise this flexibility, often incorporating coursework in emerging statistical methods, machine learning, and adaptive designs that are becoming increasingly relevant in modern clinical trials. These programs also provide hands-on training with real-world data, equipping students to handle the messy, imperfect datasets typical in clinical research. Graduates from rigorous programs gain the skills needed to work with a high degree of precision, recognising the limitations of each approach and adapting their methods to provide the most reliable analysis possible.

This commitment to continuous learning and adaptability is essential, particularly in a field as fast-evolving as clinical biostatistics. New statistical models, computational methods, and technologies are constantly emerging, offering powerful new ways to analyse data and uncover insights that would be missed with conventional methods. Biostatisticians trained to think critically and assess what they do not yet know are equipped to stay at the forefront of these advancements, ensuring that clinical trial data is analysed with the most effective and current techniques.

Individuals without this specialised training or with training from adjacent fields may lack this advanced skill set. While they may be familiar with statistical software and certain techniques, they often lack the deeper statistical grounding that allows them to identify gaps in their own knowledge, research novel techniques, and apply methods flexibly. They may rely more heavily on familiar, pre-existing methods, even when these approaches are suboptimal for the specific demands of a new clinical trial.

In clinical research, it’s critical to distinguish between fields that may seem related to biostatistics but lack the specialised training needed for rigorous clinical trial analysis. Adjacent disciplines such as biomedical engineering or bioinformatics, while valuable in their own right, do not provide the depth and specificity of statistical training required for high-stakes clinical biostatistics. Clinical trials demand a comprehensive understanding of advanced statistical methods, hypothesis testing, probability theory, and the practical challenges inherent in real-world clinical data. Without this foundation, there is a high risk that even a highly skilled professional in an adjacent field may misinterpret trial data or apply suboptimal models, potentially jeopardising trial results.

While adjacent fields like biomedical engineering and bioinformatics serve as valuable components to clinical research teams, they do not replace a biostatistician in terms of the depth of statistical expertise required to conduct clinical trials safely and effectively. Additionally, even within biostatistics itself, the rigour and quality of training can vary widely between institutions. A high-quality biostatistics qualification, grounded in coursework and practical experience, is essential to ensure that biostatisticians are fully prepared to meet the demands of clinical trial analysis, providing reliable evidence that healthcare providers can depend on to guide safe, effective patient care.


Core statistical concepts: Beyond Basic Stats


When we think about clinical trials, we often picture doctors, patients, and maybe lab scientists—but behind every trial is a biostatistician. They’re responsible for interpreting the data in a way that uncovers whether a treatment truly works, and just as importantly, whether it’s safe. On the surface, this might sound like standard statistics, but the reality is far more complex. Clinical trials involve intricate designs, variable data, and outcomes that hinge on precisely the right analytical approach. Here’s why a biostatistician needs a Master’s degree in biostatistics to navigate this terrain.


The Power Calculation: Not Just Plugging in Numbers

One of the most fundamental tasks in clinical trials is calculating statistical power—essentially, determining the sample size required to detect a treatment effect if it exists. While it might sound as simple as choosing a sample size, calculating power is actually a multi-layered process, filled with nuances that require advanced training.

A biostatistician needs to understand how effect size, variability, sample size, and study design all interact. For instance, they can’t simply use a pre-set formula; they must examine assumptions about the patient population, factor in dropout rates, and sometimes even simulate different scenarios to see how robust their sample size calculation is. If the sample size is too small, the study could miss a true treatment effect, leading to the incorrect conclusion that a treatment is ineffective. Too large, and it wastes resources and could expose patients to unnecessary risk.

An advanced biostatistics program should explore how to conduct sensitivity analyses, interpret simulation results, and understand the trade-offs in different power calculation approaches. These skills can be impractical to cultivate on the job without a solid foundation.


Hypothesis Testing: Far More Than Just a P-value

Hypothesis testing often gets reduced to p-values, but in clinical trials, p-values are just the tip of the iceberg. Deciding how to structure a hypothesis test is a skill that requires an in-depth understanding of the trial design, data type, and statistical limitations. P-values themselves are affected by factors like sample size and effect size, and they depend on correct assumptions about the data. If these assumptions are even slightly off, the results could be misleading. Additionally, a significant p value is not necessarily clinically meaningful – an effect size must be carefully considered.

Suppose a trial includes multiple subgroups, such as different age ranges, where treatment response might vary. A biostatistician needs to decide whether to test each group separately or combine them, taking into account the risk of inflating the false positive rate. They may have to employ adjustments like the Bonferroni correction or false discovery rate, each with its own implications for the results’ reliability. Knowing when and how to apply these adjustments requires expertise in statistical trade-offs—a skill set that goes beyond basic training.


Bayesian Modelling: The Complexity of Integrating Prior Information

In clinical trials, Bayesian modelling offers the flexibility to incorporate prior information, which can be crucial when there’s existing data on similar treatments. But building a Bayesian model is not as simple as adding a prior and letting the data “speak.” Bayesian analysis is an iterative, highly contextual process that involves understanding the nuances of prior selection, data updates, and model convergence.

For example, in a trial with limited data, the biostatistician might consider a prior based on past studies. But they need to ensure that the prior doesn’t overpower the current data, especially if the populations differ in meaningful ways. They’ll also have to assess how sensitive the model is to the chosen prior—small changes can have a large impact on the results. Once the model is built, they will test it with simulations, iteratively refine their approach, and apply computational techniques like Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to ensure accurate estimates.

Core skills include how to choose and validate priors, handle computational challenges, and interpret Bayesian results in a way that is both statistically valid and clinically meaningful. Without this background, Bayesian methods could be misapplied, leading to conclusions that are overly dependent on prior data, potentially skewing the trial’s findings.


Handling Confounding Variables: Getting to the True Treatment Effect

Confounding variables are one of the most significant challenges in clinical trials. These are external factors that could influence both the treatment and the outcome, creating a false impression of effect. Managing confounding variables isn’t as simple as throwing all variables into a model. It involves selecting the right approach—whether that’s stratification, regression adjustment, or propensity score matching—to isolate the treatment’s actual impact.

Imagine a trial assessing the effect of a heart medication where younger patients tend to recover faster. If age isn’t properly accounted for, the results might suggest that the treatment is effective, simply because younger patients are overrepresented in the treatment group. Handling such confounding factors involves understanding the dependencies between variables, testing assumptions, and assessing the adequacy of different adjustment techniques.

Biostatistics programs address these complexities, teaching biostatisticians how to identify and handle confounders, use advanced models like inverse probability weighting, and validate their adjustments with sensitivity analyses. This is not something that can be mastered without a solid foundation in statistics and it’s application to medicine.

A practical example:


Consider a clinical trial evaluating an innovative cardiac monitoring device intended to reduce adverse cardiovascular events in a diverse patient population, with participants spanning a wide range of ages, co-morbidities, and cardiovascular risk profiles. The complexity of this study lies not only in the heterogeneity of the patient population but also in the need to accurately capture the device’s effectiveness over extended time periods and in varied real-world contexts. Here, standard statistical methods may fail to capture the full picture; without careful investigation and adaptation, these methods could miss critical variations in device effectiveness across different patient subgroups. Missteps in analysis could lead to misguided conclusions, resulting in the misapplication of the device or failure to recognise its specific benefits for certain populations.

An unqualified biostatistician, seeing only the broad structure of the trial, might select standard statistical approaches such as repeated measures analysis or proportional hazards models, assuming that the device’s impact can be summarised uniformly across patients and time. These methods, while effective in certain contexts, may oversimplify the true complexity of the data. For instance, these approaches may overlook significant patient-specific variations, assuming all patients respond similarly over time, and fail to address potential dependencies across repeated measurements. In doing so, they risk obscuring insights into how the device performs across age groups, co-morbidity profiles, or geographic regions.

A competent biostatistician, however, would recognise that such a complex, dynamic scenario demands a more tailored and investigative approach. They would start by reviewing trial specifics—population diversity, data structure, and endpoints—and identifying the particular challenges these present. This initial assessment might lead them to consider a range of advanced modelling techniques, from hierarchical models and frailty models to time-varying covariate models, evaluating each option to find the best fit for the study’s unique demands.

For instance, a hierarchical model could capture variability at multiple levels—such as individual patients, treatment centres, or geographic clusters—allowing the biostatistician to account for factors that might cluster within sites or subgroups. If, for example, patients from one geographic area tend to experience more adverse events, a hierarchical model would help isolate these effects, ensuring they don’t skew the treatment outcomes. A frailty model, on the other hand, might be more appropriate if there are unobserved variables influencing patient outcomes, such as genetic predispositions or lifestyle factors that impact how individuals respond to the device. Each model offers benefits but comes with specific assumptions and limitations, requiring the biostatistician to weigh these factors carefully.

The biostatistician would then move beyond selecting a method, entering a phase of critical evaluation and testing. They perform model diagnostics to check assumptions, such as independence and proportional hazards, assessing how well each model fits the trial data. If they find that patient characteristics change over time, influencing treatment response, they may pivot toward a time-varying covariate model. Such a model could capture how the effectiveness of the device changes with patient health fluctuations, an essential insight in trials where health status is dynamic. Rather than assuming proportional effects across time, this approach would allow the analysis to reflect real-world shifts in patient health and co-morbidity, enhancing the relevance of the results for long-term patient care.

In addition, the biostatistician may implement advanced stratification techniques or subgroup analyses, aiming to parse out the effects of specific co-morbidities like diabetes or chronic kidney disease. These approaches are not simply a matter of segmenting data; they require careful control of confounding variables and an understanding of how stratification affects power and interpretation. The biostatistician could explore techniques such as propensity score weighting or covariate balancing to create comparable subgroups, helping to isolate the device’s effect on each subgroup with minimal bias. This ensures that the treatment effect estimation is not conflated with unrelated patient characteristics, like age or pre-existing health conditions, which could distort the true efficacy of the device.

Because of the trial’s longitudinal design, the biostatistician would also need to research and carefully apply methods that accommodate time-dependent covariates. They might examine the appropriateness of flexible parametric survival models over the traditional Cox model, especially if patient health or response to treatment fluctuates significantly over time. By reviewing the latest literature and comparing models through simulation studies, the biostatistician can determine which methods best capture the time-varying nature of the data without introducing artefacts or biases. For instance, a flexible model might reveal periods during which the device is particularly effective, or it could show diminishing efficacy as patients’ health profiles evolve, offering critical insights into when and for whom the device provides the most benefit.

In this rigorous process, the biostatistician doesn’t simply apply methods—they conduct an iterative investigation, refining their approach with each step. Sensitivity analyses, for example, might be run to determine how robust findings are to different modelling choices or to evaluate the impact of unmeasured confounders. Through this iterative process, they test assumptions, explore the validity of each approach, and adjust techniques to ensure that their final analysis captures the device’s effectiveness in a nuanced, clinically relevant way. This stands in contrast to a one-size-fits-all analysis, where insights into key variations across patient subgroups may be lost.

Ultimately, the advanced approach adopted by a qualified biostatistician goes beyond statistical rigour—it provides a comprehensive, meaningful picture of the device’s real-world effectiveness. By thoroughly investigating and validating each method, the biostatistician ensures that their analysis accurately reflects how the device performs across diverse patient populations. This depth of analysis provides doctors with reliable, specific insights into which patients are most likely to benefit, supporting safer, more personalised treatment decisions in real-world clinical settings.

Biometrics & Clinical Trials Success:

Why Outsourcing a Biostatistics Team is Pivotal to the Success of your Clinical Trial

Clinical trials are among the most critical phases in bringing a medical device or pharmaceutical product to market, and ensuring the accuracy and integrity of the data generated is essential for success. While some companies may feel confident relying on their internal teams, especially if they have expertise in AI or data science, managing the full scope of biometrics in clinical trials often requires far more specialised skills. Building a dedicated in-house team may seem like a natural next step, but it can involve significant time, cost, and resource investment that can sometimes be underestimated.

Outsourcing biometrics services offers a streamlined, cost-effective alternative, providing access to a team of specialists in statistical programming, quality control, and regulatory compliance. Much like outsourcing marketing or legal services, entrusting biometrics to an external team allows businesses to focus on their core strengths while ensuring the highest standards of data accuracy and regulatory alignment. In this article, we explore why outsourcing biometrics is a smarter approach for clinical trials, offering the expertise, flexibility, and scalability needed to succeed.

1. Expertise Across Multiple Disciplines

Clinical trials require a blend of specialised skills, from statistical programming and data management to quality control and regulatory compliance. Managing these diverse requirements internally can stretch resources and may lead to oversights. When outsourcing to a biometrics team, companies can access a broad range of expertise across all these critical areas, ensuring that every aspect of the trial is handled by specialists in their respective fields.

Instead of spreading resources thin across a small internal team, outsourcing offers a more efficient approach where every key area is covered by experts, ultimately reducing the risk of errors and enhancing the quality of the trial data.


2. Avoid Bottlenecks and Delays

Managing the data needs of a clinical trial requires careful coordination, and internal teams can sometimes face bottlenecks due to workload or resource limitations. Unexpected delays, such as staff absences or project overload, can slow progress and increase the risk of missed deadlines.

Outsourcing provides built-in flexibility, where a larger, more experienced team can step in when needed, ensuring work continues without interruption. This kind of seamless handover keeps the trial on track and avoids the costly delays that might arise from trying to juggle too many responsibilities in-house.


3. Improved Data Quality Through Redundancy

One of the advantages of outsourcing biometrics is the added level of redundancy it offers. In-house teams, particularly small ones, may not have the capacity for thorough internal quality checks, potentially allowing errors to slip through.

Outsourced teams typically have multiple layers of review built into their processes. This ensures that data undergoes several levels of scrutiny, significantly reducing the risk of unnoticed mistakes and increasing the overall reliability of the analysis.


4. Flexibility and Scalability

The nature of clinical trials often shifts, with new sites, additional data points, or evolving regulatory requirements. This creates a demand for scalability in managing the trial’s data. Internal teams can struggle to keep up as the project grows, sometimes leading to bottlenecks or rushed work that compromises quality.

Outsourcing biometrics allows companies to adapt to the changing scope of a trial easily. A specialised team can quickly scale its operations to handle additional workload without compromising the timeline or quality of the analysis.


5. Ensuring Regulatory Compliance

Meeting regulatory requirements is a critical aspect of any clinical trial. From meticulous data documentation to adherence to best practices, there are stringent standards that must be followed to gain approval from bodies like the FDA or EMA.

Outsourcing to an experienced biometrics team ensures that these standards are met consistently. Having worked across multiple trials, outsourced teams are well-versed in the latest regulations and can ensure that all aspects of the trial meet the necessary compliance requirements. This reduces the risk of costly rejections or trial delays caused by non-compliance.


6. Enhanced Data Security and Infrastructure

Handling sensitive clinical trial data requires secure systems and advanced infrastructure, which can be costly for companies to manage internally. Maintaining this infrastructure, along with the necessary cybersecurity measures, can quickly escalate expenses, especially for smaller in-house teams.

By outsourcing biometrics, companies gain access to teams with pre-existing secure infrastructure designed specifically for clinical data. This not only reduces costs but also mitigates the risk of data breaches, ensuring compliance with privacy regulations like GDPR.


7. Hidden Challenges of Building an In-House Team

While building an in-house biometrics team might seem appealing, it comes with it’s hidden challenges and costs that are easily overlooked. Recruitment, training, administrative load and retention all contribute to a growing budget, along with HR costs and the ongoing need to invest in tools and advanced infrastructure to keep the team effective.

Outsourcing offers a clear financial benefit here. Companies can bypass many resource draining activities and gain immediate access to a team of experts, without having to worry about ongoing staff management or the investment in specialised tools.


8. Unbiased Expertise

Internal teams may face pressure to align with existing company practices or preferences, which can sometimes lead to biased decisions when it comes to methodology or quality control. Outsourced teams are entirely independent and focused solely on delivering objective, high-quality results. This ensures that the best statistical methods are applied, without the potential for internal pressures to sway critical decisions.


The Case for Outsourcing Biometrics

Clinical trials are complex and require a range of specialised skills to ensure their success. While building an in-house team might seem like an intuitive solution, it often introduces unnecessary risks, hidden costs, and logistical challenges. Outsourcing biometrics to a specialised team offers a streamlined, scalable solution that ensures trial data is handled with precision and integrity, while maintaining regulatory compliance.

By leveraging the expertise of an external biometrics team, companies can focus on their core strengths—whether it’s developing a breakthrough medical device or innovating in their field—while leaving the complexities of biometrics to the experts.


If you’re preparing for your next clinical trial and want to ensure
reliable, accurate, and compliant results, contact Anatomise Biostats
today. Our expert biometrics team is ready to support your project
and deliver the results you need to bring your medical device to
market with confidence.


Fake vs Synthetic Data: What’s the difference?

The ethical and accurate handling of data is paramount in the domain of clinical research. As the demand for data-driven clinical insights continues to grow, researchers face challenges in balancing the need for accuracy with the availability of data and the imperative to protect sensitive information. In situations where quality real patient data is not available, synthetic data can be the most reliable data source from which to derive predictive insights. Synthetic data can be more cost-effective and time-efficient in many cases than acquiring the equivalent real data.

Synthetic data must be differentiated from fake data. In recent years there has been much controversy concerning fake data detected in published journal articles which have previously passed peer review, particularly in an academic context. As one study is generally built upon assumptions formed by the results of another, this preponderance of fake data has really had a catastrophic impact on our ability to trust any published scientific research, regardless of whether the study at hand also contains fake data. It has become clear that the implementation of increased quality control standards for all published research needs to be prioritised.

While synthetic data is not without it’s own pitfalls, the key difference between synthetic and fake data lies in it’s purpose and authenticity. Synthetic data is designed to emulate real-world data for specific use cases, maintaining statistical properties without revealing actual (individual) information. On the other hand, fake data is typically fabricated and may not adhere to any real-world patterns or statistics.

In clinical research, the use of real patient data is fraught with privacy concerns and other ethical considerations. Accurate and consistent patient data can also be hard to come by for other reasons such as heterogeneous recording methods or insufficient disease populations. Synthetic data is emerging as a powerful solution to navigate these limitations. While accurate synthetic data is not a trivial thing to generate, researchers can harness advanced algorithms and models built by expert data scientists to generate synthetic datasets that faithfully mimic the statistical properties and patterns of real-world patient and other data. This allows researchers to simulate and predict relevant clinical outcomes in situations where real data is not readily available, and do so without compromising individual patient privacy.

A large proportion of machine learning models in an AI context are currently being trained on synthetic rather than real data. This is largely because using generative models to create synthetic data tends to be much faster and cheaper than collecting real-world-data. Real-world data can at times lack sufficient diversity to make insights and predictions truly generalisable.

Both the irresponsible use of synthetic data and the generation and application of fake data in academic, industry and clinical research settings can have severe consequences. Whether stemming from dishonesty or incompetence, the misuse of fake data or inaccurate synthetic data poses a threat to the integrity of scientific inquiry.

This following sections define and delineate between synthetic and fake data as well as summarise the key applications of synthetic data in clinical research as compared to the potential pitfalls associated with the unethical use of fake data.

Synthetic Data:

Synthetic data refers to artificially generated data that mimics the statistical properties and patterns of real-world data. It is created using various algorithms, models, or simulations to resemble authentic patient data as closely as possible. It may do so without containing any real-world identifying information about individual patients comprising the original patient sample from which it was derived.

Synthetic data can be used in situations where privacy, security, or confidentiality concerns make it challenging to access or use real patient data. It can also be used in cases where an insufficient volume of quality patient data is available or where existing data is too heterogeneous to draw accurate inferences, such as is typically the case with rare diseases. It can potentially be employed in product testing to create realistic scenarios without subjecting real patients to unnecessary risk.

3 key use cases for synthetic data in clinical research

1. Privacy Preservation:

– Synthetic data allows researchers to conduct analyses and develop statistical models without exposing sensitive patient information. This is particularly crucial in the healthcare and clinical research sectors, where maintaining patient confidentiality is a legal and ethical imperative.

2. Robust Testing Environments:

– Clinical trials and other experiments related to product testing or behavioural interventions often necessitate testing in various scenarios. Synthetic data provides a versatile and secure testing ground, enabling researchers to validate algorithms and methodologies without putting real patients at risk.

3. Data Augmentation for Limited Datasets:

– In situations where obtaining a large and diverse dataset is challenging, synthetic data serves as a valuable tool for augmenting existing datasets. This aids in the development of more robust models and generalisable findings. A data set can be made up of varying proportions of synthetic versus real-world data. For example, a real world data set may be fairly large but lack diversity on the one hand, or small and overly heterogeneous on the other. The methods of generating synthetic data to augment these respective data sets would differ in each case.

Fake Data:

Fake data typically refers to data that is intentionally fabricated or inaccurate due to improper data handling techniques. In situations of misuse it is usually combined with real study data to give misleading results.

Fake data can be used ethically for various purposes, such as placeholder values in a database during development, creating fictional scenarios for training or educational purposes, or generating data for scenarios where realism is not crucial. Unfortunately in the majority of notable academic and clinical cases it has been used with the deliberate intention to mislead by doctoring study results and thus poses a serious threat to the scientific community and the general public.

.There are three key concerns with fake data.

1. Academic Dishonesty:

– Some researchers may be tempted to fabricate data to support preconceived conclusions, meet publication deadlines or attain competitive research grants. After many high profile cases in recent years it has become apparent that this is a pervasive issue across academic and clinical research. This form of academic dishonesty undermines the foundation of scholarly pursuits and erodes the trust placed in research findings.

2. Mishaps and Ineptitude:

– Inexperienced researchers may inadvertently create fake data, whether due to poor data collection practices, computational errors, or other mishaps. This unintentional misuse can lead to inaccurate results, potentially rendering an entire body of research unreliable if it remains undetected.

3. Erosion of Trust and Reproducibility:

– The use of fake data contributes to the reproducibility crisis in scientific research. One study found that 70% of studies cannot be reproduced due to insufficient reporting of data and methods. When results cannot be independently verified, trust in the scientific process diminishes, hindering the advancement of knowledge. The addition of fake data into this scenario makes replication and thus verification of study results all the more challenging.

In an evolving clinical research landscape, the responsible and ethical use of data is paramount. Synthetic data stands out as a valuable tool in protecting privacy, advancing research, and addressing the challenges posed by sensitive information – assuming it is generated as accurately and responsibly as possible. On the other hand, the misuse of fake data undermines the integrity of scientific research, eroding trust and impeding the progress of knowledge and it’s real-world applications. It is important to stay vigilant against bias in data and employ stringent quality control in all data contexts of data handling.

P Values, Confidence Intervals and Clinical Trials

P values are so ubiquitous in clinical research that it’s easy to take for granted that they are being understood and interpreted correctly. After-all, one might say, they are just simple proportions and it’s not brain surgery. At times, however, its’ the simplest of things that are easiest to overlook. In fact, the definitions and interpretations of p values are sufficiently subtle that even a minute pivot from an exact definition can lead to interpretations that are wildly misleading.

In the case of clinical trials, p values have a momentous impact on decision making in terms of whether or not to pursue and invest further into the development and marketing of a given therapeutic. In the context of clinical practice p values drive treatment decisions for patients as they essentially comprise the foundational evidence upon which these treatment decisions are made. This is perhaps as it should be, as long as the definition of p values and their interpretations are sound.

A counter-point to this is the bias towards publishing only studies with a statistically significant p value, as well as the fact that many studies are not sufficiently reproducible or reproduced. This leaves clinicians with an impression that evidence for a given treatment is stronger than the full picture would suggest. This however is a publishing issue rather than an issue of significance tests themselves. This article focusses on interpretation issues only.

As p values apply to the interpretation of both parametric and non-parametric tests in much the same way, this article will focus on parametric examples.

Interpreting p values in superiority/difference study designs

This refers to studies where we are seeking to find a difference between two treatment groups or between a single group measured at two time points. In this case the null hypothesis is that there is no difference between the two treatment groups or no effect of the treatment, as the case may be.

According to the significance testing framework all p values are calculated based upon an assumption that the null hypothesis is true. If a study yields a p value of 0.05, this means that we would expect to see a difference between the two groups at least as extreme as the observed effect 5% of the time; if the study were to be repeated. In other words, if there is no true difference between the two treatment groups and we ran the experiment 20 times on 20 independent samples from the same population, we would expect to see a result this extreme once out of the 20 times.

This of course is not a very helpful way of looking at things if our goal is to make a statement about treatment effectiveness. The inverse likely makes more intuitive sense: if were were to run this study 20 times on distinct patient samples from the same population, 19 out of 20 times we would not expect a result this extreme if there was no true effect. Based on the rarity of the observed effect, we conclude that likelihood of the null hypothesis being the optimal explanation of the data is sufficiently low that we can reject it. Thus our alternative research hypothesis, that there is a difference between the two treatments, is likely to be true. As the p value does not tell us whether the difference is a positive or negative direction, care should of course be taken to confirm which of the treatments holds the advantage.

P values in non-inferiority or equivalence studies.

In non-inferiority and equivalence studies a non-statistically significant p value can be a welcome result, as can a very low p value where the differences were not clinically significant, or where the new treatment is shown to be superior to the standard treatment. By only requiring the treatment not to be inferior, more power is retained and a smaller sample size can be used.

The interpretation of the p value is much the same as for superiority studies, however the implications are different. In these types of studies it is ideal for the confidence intervals for the individual treatment effects to be narrow as this provides certainty that the estimates obtained are accurate in the absence of a statistically significant difference between the two estimates.

While alternatives to p values exist, such as Bayesian statistics, these statistics have limitations of their own and are subject to the same propensity for misuse and misinterpretation as frequentist statistics are. Thus it remains important to take caution in interpreting all statistical results.

What p values do not tell you

A p value of 0.05 is not the same as saying that there is only a 5% chance that the treatment wont work. Whether or not the treatment works in the individual is another probability entirely. It is also not the same as saying there is a 5% chance of the null hypothesis being true. The p value is a statistic that is based on the assumption that the null hypothesis is true and on that basis gives the likelihood of the observed result.

Nor does the p value represent the chance of making a type 1 error. As each repetition of the same experiment produces a different p value, it does not make sense to characterise the p value as the chance of incorrectly rejecting the null hypothesis ie making a type one error. Instead, an alpha cut-off point of 0.05 should be seen as indicating a result rare enough under the null hypothesis that we are now willing to reject the null as the most likely explanation given the data. Under a type-one error alpha of 0.05 this decision is expected to be wrong 5% of the time, regardless of the p value achieved in the statistical test. The relationship between the critical alpha and statistical power is illustrated below.

Another misconception is that a small p value provides strong support for a given research hypothesis. In reality a small p value does not necessarily translate to a big effect, nor a clinically meaningful one. The p value indicates a statistically significant result, however it says nothing about the magnitude of the effect or whether this result is clinically meaningful in the context of the study. A p value of 0.00001 may appear to be a very satisfactory result, however if the difference observed between the two groups is very small then this is not always the case. All it would be saying is that “we are really really sure that there is only minimal difference between the two treatments”, which in a superiority design may not be as desired.

Minimally important difference (MID)

This is where the importance of pre-defining a minimally important difference (MID) becomes evident. The MID, or clinically meaningful difference. should be defined and quantified in the design stage before the study is to be undertaken. In the case of clinical studies this should generally be done in consultation with the clinician or disease expert concerned.

The MID may take different forms depending on whether a study is a superiority design, versus an equivalence or non-inferiority design. In the case of a superiority design or where the goal of the study is to detect a difference, the MID is the threshold of minimum difference at which we would be willing to consider the new treatment worth pursuing over the standard treatment or control being used as the comparator. In the case of a non-inferiority design the MID would be the minimum lower threshold at which we would still consider the new treatment as equally effective or useful as the standard treatment. Equivalence design on the other hand may sometimes rely on an interval around the standard treatment effect.

When interpreting results of clinical studies it is of primary importance to keep a clinically meaningful difference in mind, rather than defaulting to the p value in isolation. In cases where the p value is statistically significant, it is important to ask whether the difference between comparison groups is also as large as the MID or larger.

Confidence Intervals

All statistical tests that involve p values can produce a corresponding confidence interval for the estimates. Unlike p values, confidence intervals do not rely on an assumption of the null hypothesis but rather on the assumption that the sample approximates the population of interest. A common estimate in clinical trials where confidence intervals become important is the treatment effect. Very often this translates to the difference in means of a surrogate endpoint between two groups, however confidence intervals are also important to consider for individual group means/ treatment effects, which are an estimate of the population means of the endpoint in these distinct groups/treatment categories.

Confidence interval for the mean

A 95% confidence interval of the estimate of the mean indicates that, if this study were to be repeated, the mean value is expected to fall within this interval 95% of the time. While this estimate is based on the real mean of the study sample our interest remains in making inferences about the wider population who might later be subject to this treatment. Thus inferentially the observed mean and it’s confidence interval are both considered an estimate of the population values.

In a nutshell the confidence interval indicates how sure we can be of the accuracy of the estimate. A narrower interval indicates greater confidence and a wider interval less. The p value of the estimate indicates how certain we can be of this result, ie the interval itself.

Confidence interval for the mean difference, treatment effects or difference in treatment effects

The mean difference in treatment effect between two groups is an important estimate in any comparison study, from superiority to non-inferiority clinical trial designs. Treatment response is mainly ascertained from repeated measures of surrogate endpoint data on the individual level. One form of mean difference is repeated measures data from the same individuals at different time points, these individuals’ differences could then be compared between two independent treatment groups. In the context of clinical trials, confidence intervals of the mean difference can relate to an individual’s treatment effect or to group differences in treatment effects.

A 95% Confidence interval of the mean difference in treatment effect indicates that 95 per cent of the time, if this study were to be repeated, the true difference in treatment effect between the groups is expected to fall within this interval. A confidence interval containing zero indicates that a statistically significant difference between the two groups has not been found. Namely, if part of the time the true population value representing the difference is expected to fall above zero on the number line and part of the time to fall below zero, indicating a difference in the opposite direction, we cannot be sure whether one group is higher or lower than the other.

Much ho-hum has been made of p values in recent years but they are here to stay. While alternatives to p values exist, such as Bayesian methods, these statistics have limitations of their own and are subject to the same propensity for misuse and misinterpretation as frequentist statistics are. Thus it remains important to take caution in interpreting all statistical results.

Sources and further reading:

Gao, P-Values – A chronic conundrum, BMC Medical Research Methodology (2020), 20:167
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12874-020-01051-6

The Royal College of Ophthalmologists, The clinician’s guide to p values, confidence intervals, and magnitude of effects, Eye (2022) 36:341–342; https://doi.org/10.1038/s41433-021-01863-w

The role of Biostatisticians, Bioinformaticians & other Data Experts in Clinical Research

As a medical researcher or a small enterprise in the life sciences industry, you are likely to encounter many experts using statistical and computational techniques to study biological, clinical and other health data. These experts can come from a variety of fields such as biostatistics, bioinformatics, biometrics, clinical data science and epidemiology. Although these fields do overlap in certain ways they differ in purpose, focus, and application. All four areas listed above focus on analysing and interpreting either biological, clinical data or public health data but they typically do so in different ways and with different goals in mind. Understanding these differences can help you choose the most appropriate specialists for your research project and get the most out of their expertise. This article will begin with a brief description of these disciplines for the sake of disambiguation, then focus on biostatistics and bioinformatics, with a particular overview of the roles of biostatisticians and bioinformatics scientists in clinical trials.

Biostatisticians

Biostatisticians use advanced biostatistical methods to design and analyse pre-clinical experiments, clinical trials, and observational studies predominantly in the medical and health sciences. They can also work in ecological or biological fields which will not be the focus of this article. Biostatisticians tend to work on varied data sets, including a combination of medical, public health and genetic data in the context of clinical studies. Biostatisticians are involved in every stage of a research project, from planning and designing the study, to collecting and analysing the data, to interpreting and communicating the results. They may also be involved in developing new statistical methods and software tools. In the UK the term “medical statistician” has been in common use over the past 40 years to describe a biostatistician, particularly one working in clinical trials, but it is becoming less used due to the global nature of the life sciences industry.

Bioinformaticians

Bioinformaticians use computational and statistical techniques to analyse and interpret large datasets in the life sciences. They often work with multi-omics data such as genomics, proteomics transcriptomics data and use tools such as large databases, algorithms, and specialised software programs to analyse and make sense of sequencing and other data. Bioinformaticians develop analysis pipelines and fine-tune methods and tools for analysing biological data to fit the evolving needs of researchers.

Clinical data scientists

Data scientists use statistical and computational modelling methods to make predictions and extract insights from a wide range of data. Often, data is real-world big data of which it might not be practical to analyse using other methods. In a clinical development context data sources could include medical records, epidemiological or public health data, prior clinical study data, or IOT and IOB sensor data. Data scientists may combine data from multiple sources and types. Using analysis pipelines, machine learning techniques, neural networks, and decision tree analysis this data can be made sense of. The better the quality of the input data the more precise and accurate any predictive algorithms can be.

Statistical programmers

Statistical programmers help statisticians to efficiently clean and prepare data sets and mock TFLs in preparation for analysis. They set up SDTM and ADaM data structures in preparation for clinical studies. Quality control of data and advanced macros for database management are also key skills.

Biometricians

Biometricians use statistical methods to analyse data related to the characteristics of living organisms. They may work on topics such as growth patterns, reproductive success, or the genetic basis of traits. Biometricians may also be involved in developing new statistical methods for analysing data in these areas. Some use the terms biostatistician and biometrician interchangeably however for the purpose of this article they remain distinct.

Epidemiologists

Epidemiologists study the distribution and determinants of diseases in populations. Using descriptive, analytical, or experimental techniques, such as cohort or case-control studies, they identify risk factors for diseases, evaluate the effectiveness of public health interventions, as well as track or model the spread of infectious diseases. Epidemiologists use data from laboratory testing, field studies, and publicly available health data. They can be involved in developing new public health policies and interventions to prevent or control the spread of diseases.

Clinical trials and the role of data experts

Clinical trials involve testing new treatments, interventions, or diagnostic tests in humans. These studies are an important step in the process of developing new medical therapies and understanding the effectiveness and safety of existing treatments.

Biostatisticians are crucial to the proper design and analysis of clinical trials. So that optimal study design can take place, they may first have to conduct extensive meta-analysis of previous clinical studies and RWE generation based on available real-world data sets or R&D results. They may also be responsible for managing the data and ensuring its quality, as well as interpreting and communicating the results of the trial. From developing the statistical analysis plan and contributing to the study protocol, to final analysis and reporting, biostatisticians have a role to play across the project time-line.

During a clinical trial, statistical programmers may prepare data sets to CDISC standards and pre-specified study requirements, maintain the database, as well as develop and implement standard SAS code and algorithms used to describe and analyse the study data.

Bioinformaticians may be involved in the design and analysis stages of clinical trials, particularly if the trial design involves the use of large data sets such as sequencing data for multi-omics analysis. They may be responsible for managing and analysing this data, as well as developing software tools and algorithms to support the analysis.

Data scientists may be involved in designing and analysing clinical trials at the planning stage, as well as in developing new tools and methods. The knowledge gleaned from data science models can be used to improve decision-making across various contexts, including life sciences R&D and clinical trials. Some applications include optimising the patient populations used in clinical trials; feasibility analysis using simulation of site performance, region, recruitment and other variables, to evaluate the impacts of different scenarios on project cost and timeline.

Biometricians and epidemiologists may also contribute to clinical trials, particularly if the trial is focused on a specific population or on understanding the factors that influence the incidence or severity of a disease. They may contribute to the design of the study, collecting and analysing the data, or interpreting the results.

Overall, the role of these experts in clinical trials is to use their varied expertise in statistical analysis, data management, and research design to help understand the safety and effectiveness of new treatments and interventions.

The role of biostatistician in clinical trials

Biostatisticians may be responsible for developing the study protocol, determining the sample size, producing the randomisation schedule, and selecting the appropriate statistical methods for analysing the data. They may also be responsible for managing the data and ensuring its quality, as well as interpreting and communicating the results of the trial.

SDTM data preparation

The Study Data Tabulation Model (SDTM) is a data standard that is used to structure and organize clinical study data in a standardized way. Depending on how a CRO is structured, either biostatisticians, statistical programmers, or both will be involved in mapping the data collected in a clinical trial to the SDTM data set, which involves defining the structure and format of the data and ensuring that it is consistent with the standard. This helps to ensure that the data is organised in a way that is universally interpretable. This process involves working with the research team to ensure the appropriate variables and categories are defined before reviewing and verifying the data to ensure that it is accurate, complete and in line with industry standards. Typically the SDTM data set will be established early at the protocol phase and populated later once trial data is accumulated.

Creating and analysing the ADaM dataset

In clinical trials, the Analysis Data Model (ADaM) is a data set model used to structure and organize clinical trial data in a standardized way for the purpose of statistical analysis. ADaM data sets are used to store the data that will be analysed as part of the clinical trial, and are typically created from the Study Data Tabulation Model (SDTM) data sets, which contain the raw data collected during the trial. This helps to ensure the reliability and integrity of the data, and makes it easier to analyse and interpret the results of the trial.

Biostatisticians and statistical programmers are responsible for developing ADaM data sets from the SDTM data, which involves selecting the relevant variables and organizing them in a way that is appropriate for the particular statistical analyses that will be conducted. While statistical programmers may create derived variables, produce summary statistics, TFLs, and organise the data into appropriate datasets and domains, biostatisticians are responsible for conducting detailed statistical analyses of the data and interpreting the results. This may include tasks such as testing hypotheses, identifying patterns and trends in the data, and developing statistical models to understand the relationships between the data and the research questions the trial seeks to answer.

The role of biostatisticians, specifically, in developing ADaM data sets from SDTM data is to use their expertise in statistical analysis and research design to guide statistical programmers in ensuring that the data is organised, structured, and formatted in a way that is appropriate for the analyses that will be conducted, and to help understand and interpret the results of the trial.

A Biostatistician’s role in study design & planning

Biostatisticians play a critical role in the design, analysis, and interpretation of clinical trials. The role of the biostatistician in a clinical trial is to use their expertise in statistical analysis and research design to help ensure that the trial is conducted in a scientifically rigorous and unbiased way, and to help understand and interpret the results of the trial. Here is a general overview of the tasks that a biostatistician might be involved in during the different stages of a clinical trial:

Clinical trial design: Biostatisticians may be involved in designing the clinical trial, including determining the study objectives, selecting the appropriate study population, and developing the study protocol. They are responsible for determining the sample size and selecting the appropriate statistical methods for analysing the data. Often in order to carry out these tasks, preparatory analysis will be necessary in the form of detailed meta-analysis or systematic review.

Sample size calculation: Biostatisticians are responsible for determining the required sample size for the clinical trial. This is an important step, as the sample size needs to be large enough to detect a statistically significant difference between the treatment and control groups, but not so large that the trial becomes unnecessarily expensive or time-consuming. Biostatisticians use statistical algorithms to determine the sample size based on the expected effect size, the desired level of precision, and the expected variability of the data. This information is informed by expert opinion and simulation of the data from previous comparable studies.

Randomisation schedules: Biostatisticians develop the randomisation schedule for the clinical trial, which is a plan for assigning subjects to the treatment and control groups in a random and unbiased way. This helps to ensure that the treatment and control groups are similar in terms of their characteristics, which helps to reduce bias or control for confounding factors that might affect the results of the trial.

Protocol development: Biostatisticians are involved in developing the statistical and methodological sections of the clinical trial protocol, which is a detailed plan that outlines the objectives, methods, and procedures of the study. In addition to outlining key research questions and operational procedures the protocol should include information on the study population, the interventions being tested, the outcome measures, and the data collection and analysis methods.

Data analysis: Biostatisticians are responsible for analysing the data from the clinical trial, including conducting interim analyses and making any necessary adjustments to the protocol. They play a crucial role in interpreting the results of the analysis and communicating the findings to the research team and other stakeholders.

Final analysis and reporting: Biostatisticians are responsible for conducting the final analysis of the data and preparing the final report of the clinical trial. This includes summarising the results, discussing the implications of the findings, and making recommendations for future research.

The role of bioinformatician in biomarker-guided clinical studies.

Biomarkers are biological characteristics that can be measured and used to predict the likelihood of a particular outcome, such as the response to a particular treatment. Biomarker-guided clinical trials use biomarkers as a key aspect of the study design and analysis. In biomarker-guided clinical trials where the biomarker is based on genomic sequence data, bioinformaticians may play a particularly important role in managing and analysing the data. Genomic and other omics data is often large and complex, and requires specialised software tools and algorithms to analyse and interpret. Bioinformaticians develop and implement these tools and algorithms, as well as for managing and analysing the data to identify patterns and relationships relevant to the trial. Bioinformaticians use their expertise in computational biology to to help understand the relationship between multi-omics data and the outcome of the trial, and to identify potential biomarkers that can be used to guide treatment decisions.

Processing sequencing data is a key skill of bioinformaticians that involves several steps, which may vary depending on the specific goals of the analysis and the type of data being processed. Here is a general overview of the steps that a bioinformatician might take to process sequencing data:

  1. Data pre-processing: Cleaning and formatting the data so that it is ready for analysis. This may include filtering out low-quality data, correcting errors, and standardizing the format of the data.
  2. Mapping: Aligning the sequenced reads to a reference genome or transcriptome in order to determine their genomic location. This can be done using specialized software tools such as Bowtie or BWA.
  3. Quality control: Checking the quality of the data and the alignment, and identifying and correcting any problems that may have occurred during the sequencing or mapping process. This may involve identifying and removing duplicate reads, or identifying and correcting errors in the data.
  4. Data analysis: Using statistical and computational techniques to identify patterns and relationships in the data such as identifying genetic variants, analysing gene expression levels, or identifying pathways or networks that are relevant to the study.
  5. Data visualization: Creating graphs, plots, and other visualizations to help understand and communicate the results of the analysis.

Once omics data has been analysed, the insights obtained can be used for tailoring therapeutic products to patient populations in a personalised medicine approach.

A changing role of data experts in life sciences R&D and clinical research

Due to the need for better therapies and health solutions, researchers are currently defining diseases at more granular levels using multi-omics insights from DNA sequencing data which allows differentiation between patients in the biomolecular presentation of their disease, demographic factors, and their response to treatment. As more and more of the resulting therapies reach the market the health care industry will need to catch up in order to provide these new treatment options to patients.

Even after a product receives regulatory approval, payers can opt not to reimburse patients, so financial benefit should be demonstrated in advance where possible. Patient reported outcomes and other health outcomes are becoming important sources of data to consider in evidence generation. Evidence provided to payers should aim to demonstrate financial as well as clinical benefit of the product.

In this context, regulators are becoming aware of the need for innovation in developing new ways of collecting treatment efficacy and other data used to assess novel products for regulatory approval. The value of observational studies and real-world-data sources as a supplement clinical trial data is being acknowledged as a legitimate and sometimes necessary part of the product approval process. Large scale digitisation now makes it easier to collect patient-centric data directly from clinical trial participants and users via devices and apps. Establishing clear evidence expectations from regulatory agencies then Collaborating with external stakeholders, data product experts, and service-providers to help build new evidence-building approaches.

Expert data governance and quality control is crucial to the success of any new methods to be implemented analytically. Data from different sources, such as IOT sensor data, electronic health records, sequencing data for multi-omics analysis, and other large data sets, has to be combined cautiously and with robust expert standards in place.

From biostatistics, bioinformatics, data science, CAS, and epidemiology for public heath or post-market modelling; a bespoke team of integrated data and analytics specialists is now as important to a product development project as the product itself to gaining competitiveness and therefore success in the marketplace. Such a team should be applying a combination of established data collection methodologies eg. clinical trials and systematic review, and innovative methods such as machine learning models that draw upon a variety of real world data sources to find a balance between advancing important innovation and mitigating risk.

Sex Differences in Clinical Trial Recruiting

The following article investigates several systematic reviews into sex and gender representation in individual clinical trial patient populations. In these studies sex ratios are assessed and evaluated by various factors such as clinical trial phase, disease type under investigation and disease burden in the population. Sex differences in the reporting of safety and efficacy outcomes are also investigated. In many cases safety and efficacy outcomes are pooled, rather than reported individually for each sex, which can be problematic when findings are generalised to the wider population. In order to get the dosage right for different body compositions and avoid unforeseen outcomes in off label use or when a novel therapeutic first reaches the market, it is important to report sex differences in clinical trials. Due to the unique nuances of disease types and clinical trial phases it is important to realise that a 50-50 ratio of male to female is not always the ideal or even appropriate in every clinical study design. Having the right sex balance in your clinical trial population will improve the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of your study. Based upon the collective findings a set of principles are put forth to guide the researcher in determining the appropriate sex ratio for their clinical trial design.

Sex difference by clinical trial phase

  • variation in sex enrolment ratios for clinical trial phases
  • females less likely to participate in early phases, due to increased risk of adverse events
  • under-representation of women in phase III when looking at disease prevalence

It has been argued that female representation in clinical trials is lacking, despite recent efforts to mitigate the gap. US data from 2000-2020 suggests that trial phase has the greatest variation in enrolment when compared to other factors, with median female enrolment being 42.9%, 44.8%, 51.7%, and 51.1% for phases I, I/II to II, II/III to III, and IV4. This shows that median female enrolment gradually increases as trials progress, with the difference in female enrolment between the final phases II/III to III and IV being <1%. Additional US data on FDA approved drugs including trials from as early as 1993 report that female participation in clinical trials is 22%, 48%, and 49% for trial phases I, II, and III respectively2. While the numbers for participating sexes are almost equal in phases II and III, women make up only approximately one fifth of phase I trial populations in this dataset2. The difference in reported participation for phase I trials between the datasets could be due to an increase in female participation in more recent years. The aim of a phase I trial is to evaluate safety and dosage, so it comes as no surprise that women, especially those of childbearing age, are often excluded due to potential risks posed to foetal development.

In theory, women can be included to a greater extent as trial phases progress and the potential risk of severe adverse events decreases. By the time a trial reaches phase III, it should ideally reflect the real-world disease population as much as possible. European data for phase III trials from 2011-2015 report 41% of participants being female1, which is slightly lower than female enrolment in US based trials. 26% of FDA approved drugs have a >20% difference between the proportion of women in phase II & III clinical trials and the prevalence of women in the US with the disease2, and only one of these drugs shows an over-representation of women.

Reporting of safety and efficacy by sex difference

  • Both safety and efficacy results tend to differ by sex.
  • Reporting these differences is inconsistent and often absent
  • Higher rates of adverse events in women are possibly caused by less involvement or non stratification in dose finding and safety studies.
  • There is a need to enforce analysis and reporting of sex differences in safety and efficacy data

Sex differences in response to treatment regarding both efficacy and safety have been widely reported. Gender subgroup analyses regarding efficacy can reveal whether a drug is more or less effective in one sex than the other. Gender subgroup analyses for efficacy are available for 71% of FDA approved drugs, and of these 11% were found to be more efficacious in men and 7% in women2. Alternatively, only 2 of 22 European Medicines Agency approved drugs examined were found to have efficacy differences between the sexes1. Nonetheless, it is important to study the efficacy of a new drug on all potential population subgroups that may end up taking that drug.

The safety of a treatment also differs between the sexes, with women having a slightly higher percentage (p<0.001) of reported adverse events (AE) than men for both treatment and placebo groups in clinical trials1. Gender subgroup analyses regarding safety can offer insights into the potential risks that women are subjected to during treatment. Despite this, gender specific safety analyses are available for only 45% of FDA approved drugs, with 53% of these reporting more side effects in women2. On average, women are at a 34% increased risk of severe toxicity for each cancer treatment domain, with the greatest increased risk being for immunotherapy (66%). Moreover, the risk of AE is greater in women across all AE types, including patient-reported symptomatic (female 33.3%, male 27.9%), haematologic (female 45.2%, male 39.1%) and objective non-haematologic (female 30.9%, male 29.0%)3. These findings highlight the importance of gender specific safety analyses and the fact that more gender subgroup safety reporting is needed. More reporting will increase our understanding of sex-related AE and could potentially allow for sex-specific interventions in the future.

Sex differences by disease type and burden

  • Several disease categories have recently been associated with lower female enrolment
  • Men are under-represented as often as women when comparing enrolment to disease burden proportions
  • There is a need for trial participants to be recruited on a case-by-case basis, depending on the disease.

Sex differences by disease type

When broken down by disease type, the sex ratio of clinical trial participation shows a more nuanced picture. Several disease categories have recently been associated with lower female enrolment, compared to other factors including trial phase, funding, blinding, etc4. Women comprised the smallest proportions of participants in US-based trials between 2000-2020 for cardiology (41.4%), sex-non-specific nephrology and genitourinary (41.7%), and haematology (41.7%) clinical trials4. Despite women being

proportionately represented in European phase III clinical studies between 2011-2015 for depression, epilepsy, thrombosis, and diabetes, they were significantly under-represented for hepatitis C, HIV, schizophrenia, hypercholesterolaemia, and heart failure and were not found to be overrepresented in trials for any of the disease categories examined1. This shows that the gap in gender representation exists even in later clinical trial phases when surveying disease prevalence, albeit to a lesser extent. Examining disease burden shows that the gap is even bigger than anticipated and includes the under-representation of both sexes.

Sex Differences by Disease Burden

It is not until the burden of disease is considered that men are shown to be under-represented as often as women. Including burden of disease can depict proportionality relative to the variety of disease manifestations between men and women. It can be measured as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), which represent the number of healthy years of life lost due to the disease. Despite the sexes each making up approximately half of clinical trial participants overall in US-based trials between 2000-2020, all disease categories showed an under-representation of either women or men relative to disease burden, except for infectious disease and dermatologic clinical trials4. Women were under-represented in 7 of 17 disease categories, with the greatest under-representation being in oncology trials, where the difference between the number of female trial participants and corresponding DALYs is 3.6%. Men were under-represented compared with their disease burden in 8 of 17 disease categories, with the greatest difference being 11.3% for musculoskeletal disease and trauma trials.4 Men were found to be under-represented to a similar extent to women, suggesting that the under-representation of either sex could be by coincidence. Alternatively, male under-representation could potentially be due to the assumption of female under-representation leading to overcorrection in the opposite direction. It should be noted that these findings would benefit from statistical validation, although they illustrate the need for clinical trial participants to be recruited on a case-by-case basis, depending on the disease.

Takeaways to improve your patient sample in clinical trial recruiting:

  1. Know the disease burden/DALYs of your demographics for that disease.
  2. Try to balance the ratio of disease burden to the appropriate demographics for your disease
  3. Aim to recruit patients based on these proportions
  4. Stratify clinical trial data by the relevant demographics in your analysis. For example: toxicity, efficacy, adverse events etc should always be analyses separately for male and female to come up wit the respective estimates.
  5. Efficacy /toxicity etc should always be reported separately for male and female. reporting difference by ethnicity is also important as many diseases differentially affect certain ethnicity and the corresponding therapeutics can show differing degrees of efficacy and adverse events.

The end goal of these is that medication can be more personalised and any treatment given is more likely to help and less likely to harm the individual patient.

Conclusions

There is room for improvement in the proportional representation of both sexes in clinical trials and knowing a disease demographic is vital to planning a representative trial. Assuming the under-representation is on the side of female rather than male may lead to incorrect conclusions and actions to redress the balance. Taking demographic differences in disease burden into account when recruiting trial participants is needed. Trial populations that more accurately depict the real-world populations will allow a therapeutic to be tailored to the patient.

Efficacy and safety findings highlight the need for clinical study data to be stratified by sex, so that respective estimates can be determined. This enables more accurate, sex/age appropriate dosing that will maximise treatment efficacy and patient safety, as well as minimise the chance of adverse events. This also reduces the risks associated with later off label use of drugs and may avoid modern day tragedies resembling the thalidomide tragedy. Moreover, efficacy and adverse events should always be reported separately for men and women, as the evidence shows their distinct differences in response to therapeutics.

See our full report on diversity in patient recruiting for clinical trials.

References:

1. Dekker M, de Vries S, Versantvoort C, Drost-van Velze E, Bhatt M, van Meer P et al. Sex Proportionality in Pre-clinical and Clinical Trials: An Evaluation of 22 Marketing Authorization Application Dossiers Submitted to the European Medicines Agency. Frontiers in Medicine. 2021;8.

2. Labots G, Jones A, de Visser S, Rissmann R, Burggraaf J. Gender differences in clinical registration trials: is there a real problem?. British Journal of Clinical Pharmacology. 2018;84(4):700-707.

3. Unger J, Vaidya R, Albain K, LeBlanc M, Minasian L, Gotay C et al. Sex Differences in Risk of Severe Adverse Events in Patients Receiving Immunotherapy, Targeted Therapy, or Chemotherapy in Cancer Clinical Trials. Journal of Clinical Oncology. 2022;40(13):1474-1486.

4. Steinberg J, Turner B, Weeks B, Magnani C, Wong B, Rodriguez F et al. Analysis of Female Enrollment and Participant Sex by Burden of Disease in US Clinical Trials Between 2000 and 2020. JAMA Network Open. 2021;4(6):e2113749.

Estimating the Costs Associated with Novel Pharmaceutical development: Methods and Limitations.

Data sources for cost analysis of drug development R&D and clinical trials

Cost estimates for pre-clinical and clinical development across the pharmaceutical industry differ based on several factors. One of these is the source of data used by each costing study to inform these estimates. Several studies use private data, which can include confidential surveys filled out by pharmaceutical firms/clinical trial units and random samples from private databases3,9,10,14,15,16. Other studies have based their cost estimates upon publicly available data, such as data from the FDA/national drug regulatory agencies, published peer-reviewed studies, and other online public databases1,2,12,13,17.

Some have questioned the validity of using private surveys from large multinational pharmaceutical companies to inform cost estimates, saying that survey data may be artificially inflated by pharmaceutical companies to justify high therapeutic prices 18,19,20. Another concern is that per trial spending by larger pharmaceutical companies and multinational firms would far exceed the spending of start-ups and smaller firms, meaning cost estimates made based on data from these larger companies would not be representative of smaller firms.

Failure rate of R&D and clinical trial pipelines

Many estimates include the cost of failures, which is especially the case for cost estimates “per approved drug”. As many compounds enter the clinical trial pipeline, the cost to develop one approved drug/compound includes cost of failures by considering the clinical trial success rate and cost of failed compounds. For example, if 100 compounds enter phase I trials, and 2 compounds are approved, the clinical cost per approved drug would include the amount spent on 50 compounds.

The rate of success used can massively impact cost estimates, where a low success rate or high failure rate will lead to much higher costs per approved drug. The overall probability of clinical success may vary by year and has been estimated at a range of values including 7.9%21, 11.83%10, and 13.8%22. There are concerns that some studies suggesting lower success rates have relied on small samples from industry curated databases and are thereby vulnerable to selection bias12,22.

Success rates per phase transition also affects overall costs. When more ultimately unsuccessful compounds enter late clinical trial stages, the higher the costs are per approved compound. In addition, success rates are also dependent on therapeutic area and patient stratification by biomarkers, among other factors. For example, one study estimated the lowest success rate at 1.6% for oncological trials without biomarker use compared with a peak success rate of 85.7% for cardiovascular trials utilising biomarkers22. While aggregate success rates can be used to estimate costs, using specific success rates will be more accurate to estimate the cost of a specific upcoming trial, which could help with budgeting and funding decisions.

Out-of-pocket costs vs capitalised costs & interest rates

Cost estimates also differ due to reporting of out-of-pocket and capitalised costs. An out-of-pocket cost refers to the amount of money spent or expensed on the R&D of a therapeutic. This can include all aspects of setting up therapeutic development, from initial funding in drug discovery/device design, to staff and site costs during clinical trials, and regulatory approval expenses.

The capitalised cost of a new therapeutic refers to the addition of out-of-pocket costs to a yearly interest rate applied to the financial investments funding the development of a new drug. This interest rate, referred to as the discount rate, is determined by (and is typically greater than) the cost of capital for the relevant industry.

Discount rates for the pharmaceutical industry vary between sources and can dramatically alter estimates for capitalised cost, where a higher discount rate will increase capitalised cost. Most studies place the private cost of capital for the pharmaceutical industry to be 8% or higher23,24, while the cost of capital for government is lower at around 3% to 7% for developed countries23,25. Other sources have suggested rates from as high as 13% to as low as zero13,23,26, where the zero cost of capital has been justified by the idea that pharmaceutical firms have no choice but to invest in R&D. However, the mathematical model used in many estimations for the cost of industry capital, the CAPM model, tends to give more conservative estimates23. This would mean the 10.5% discount rate widely used in capitalised cost estimates may in fact result in underestimation.

While there is not a consensus on what discount rate to use, capitalised costs do represent the risks undertaken by research firms and investors. A good approach may be to present both out-of-pocket and capitalised estimated costs, in addition to rates used, justification for the rate used, and the estimates using alternative rates in a sensitivity analysis26.

Costs variation over time

The increase in therapeutic development costs

Generally, there has been a significant increase in the estimated costs to develop a new therapeutic over time26. One study reported an exponential increase of capitalised costs from the 1970s to the mid-2010s, where the total capitalised costs rose annually 8.5% above general inflation from 1990 to 201310. Recent data has suggested that average development costs reached a peak in 2019 and had decreased the following two years9. This recent decrease in costs was associated with slightly reduced cycle times and an increased proportion of infectious disease research, likely in response to the rapid response needed for COVID-19.

Recent cost estimates

Costs can range with more than 100-fold differences for phase III/pivotal trials alone1. One of the more widely cited studies on drug costs used confidential survey data from ten multinational pharmaceutical firms and a random sample from a database of publicly available data10. In 2013, this study estimated the total pre-approval cost at $2.6 billion USD per approved new compound. This was a capitalised cost, and the addition of post-approval R&D costs increased this estimate to $2.87 billion (2013 USD). The out-of-pocket cost per approved new compound was reported at $1.395 billion, of which $965 million were clinical costs and the remaining $430 million were pre-clinical.

Another estimate reported the average cost to develop an asset at $1.296 billion in 20139. Furthermore, it reported that this cost had increased until 2019 at $2.431 billion and had since decreased to $2.376 billion in 2020 and $2.006 billion in 2021. While comparable to the previous out-of-pocket estimate for 2013, this study does not state whether their estimates are out-of-pocket or capitalised, making it difficult to meaningfully compare these estimates.

Figure 1: Recent cost estimates for drug development per approved new compound. “Clinical only” costs include only the costs of phase 0-III clinical trials, while “full” costs include pre-clinical costs. The colour of each bubble indicates the study, while bubble size indicated relative cost. A dashed border indicated the study used private data for their estimations, while a solid border indicates the study utilised publicly available data. Figure represents studies 9, 10, 12, 13 and 17 from the reference list in this report.

Publicly available data of 63 FDA-approved new biologics from 2009-2018 was used to estimate the capitalised (at 10.5%) R&D investment to bring a new drug to market at median of $985.3 million and a mean of $1.3359 billion (inflation adjusted to 2018 USD)12. These data were mostly accessible from smaller firms, smaller trials, first-in-class drugs, and further specific areas. The variation in estimated cost was, through sensitivity analysis, mostly explained by success/failure rates, preclinical expenditures, and cost of capital.

Publicly available data of 10 companies with no other drugs on the market in 2017 was used to estimate out-of-pocket costs for the development of a single cancer drug. This was reported at a median of $648 million and a mean of $719.8 million13. Capitalised costs were also reported using a 7% discount rate, with a median of $754.4 million and mean of $969.4 million. By focusing on data from companies without other drugs on the market, these estimates may better represent the development costs per new molecular entity (NME) for start-ups as the cost of failure of other drugs in the pipeline were included while any costs related to supporting existing on-market drugs were systematically impossible to include.

One study estimated the clinical costs per approved non-orphan drug at $291 million (out-of-pocket) and $412 million (capitalised 10.5%)17. The capitalised cost estimate increased to $489 million when only considering non-orphan NMEs. The difference between these estimates for clinical costs and the previously mentioned estimates for total development costs puts into perspective the amount

spent on pre-clinical trials and early drug development, with one studynoting their pre-clinical estimates comprised 32% of out-of-pocket and 42% of capitalised costs10.

Things to consider about cost estimates

The issue with these estimates is that there are so many differing factors affecting each study. This complicates cost-based pricing discussions, especially when R&D cost estimates can differ orders of magnitude apart. The methodologies used to calculate out-of-pocket costs differ between studies9,17, and the use of differing data sources (public data vs confidential surveys) seem to impact these estimates considerably.

There is also an issue with the transparency of data and methods from various sources in cost estimates. Some of this is a result of using confidential data, where some analyses are not available for public scrutiny8. This study in particular raised questions as estimates were stated without any information about the methodology or data used in the calculation of estimates. The use of confidential surveys of larger companies has also been criticised as the confidential data voluntarily submitted would have been submitted anonymously without independent verification12.

Due to the limited amount of comprehensive and published cost data17, many estimates have no option but to rely on using a limited data set and making some assumptions to arrive at a reasonable estimate. This includes a lack of transparent available data for randomised control trials, where one study reported that only 18% of FDA-approved drugs had publicly available cost data18. Therefore, there is a need for transparent and replicable data in this field to allow for more plausible cost estimates to be made, which in turn could be used to support budget planning and help trial sustainability18,26.

Despite the issues between studies, the findings within each study can be used to gather an idea of trends, cost drivers, and costs specific to company/drug types. For example, studies suggest an increasing overall cost of drug development from 1970 to peak in 201910, with a subsequent decrease in 2020 and 20219.

For a full list of references used in this article, please see the main report here: https://anatomisebiostats.com/biostatistics-blog/how-much-does-developing-a-novel-therapeutic-cost-factors-affecting-drug-development-costs-in-the-pharma-industry-a-mini-report/